Jan Briza of the Novi Sad weekly "Nezavisni"explores the election issue in the July 26 issue of that magazine.

July 22 was the date when the registration of refugees with electoral right for September elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina began in FR Yugoslavia. The first day already showed that this will be mainly a fruitless affair. There was no sight of the refugees. In some counties in Vojvodina, where most of the unlucky ones from the other side of the Drina are currently located, not one person registered at the allocated offices.A day later, in Novi Sad, the assistant of the Serbian Commessariat for refugees Vladimir Cucic gathered local activists who have the job of catching as many voter as possible for "our cause" in Bosnia. He explained to them that they are given the mission "of highest national priority", since "we are threatened that on September 14 we might loose everything we won in the war". He also appealed to the present journalists to do as much as possible themselves to make the refugees realize that "they have to be Bosnians at least for that day".

The registration of voters for "our cause" in Bosnia is not going easy also due to the fact that the refugees in these ares do not want to find themselves on any lists. Even the one for the humanitarian help. They do not know what might be behind it. They still remember forceful mobilizations conducted by the Serbian police, and facilitated by the readiness of the Serbian and Federal "humanitarians" to supply them with the addresses of military able men.

The furor surrounding the elections began when in Pale and Belgrade they realized that the Muslims there could easily, with the aid of the ballots, win some ten counties in Republika Srpska, including Brcko, and their presidential candidate Abid Djozic, even be elected to replace Radovan Karadzic ! The danger for that lies in the great spread of the Serbian voters, split between numerous politicians and parties - the Serbs have six presidential candidates, the Muslims one.

The Muslims and Croats also have their "Bosnians for a day", and are counting on them on September 14. All sides in Bosnia are undertaking all in their capabilities that the results of those elections mirror the ones held recently in Mostar. Their goal is ethnic division of the country. That is why they fought the war.

Source: Novi Sad weekly "Nezavisni", July 26, 1996

Dragan Janjic of the Belgtrade by-weekly "Republik" gives his newest account of the pre-electoral situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the July 1-31, 1996 double issue of the magazine.

Since the beginning of the electoral campaign no important changes have taken place in the balance of political power, while the announced candidates and coalitions have confirmed that the tree ruling parties - SDA, HDZ and SDS are continuing to consolidate their positions.

The ruling parties hold to the motto that the national question is the most important one, and using the media and unsettling memories of recent conflicts, hold the voters in fear, convincing them that they are the only ones that can protect them from those others. Those parties know that the war that was lead was such, that it forced the people to beleive that living on the territory where the rule belongs to one of the other two bosnian nations means at the same time being downgraded and risking liquidation.

SDA has proposed almost 5 thousand candidates for county, cantonal and republican institutions in both entities. The list of the candidates of that party for the future Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina is lead by the vice president of the Federation, Ejup Ganic, who is considerer as an exponent of the tough nationalistic line. The list of the candidates for the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, formed by the Bosnian Muslims and Croats, is lead by the current prime minister Hasan Muratovic. This Parliament is supposed to elect the president and vice president of the Federation. The list of the singularly strongest oppositionary party, The Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina is lead by its founder and president Haris Silajdzic.

The third serious electoral competitor in the Federation is the Joint List for Bosnia, which is comprised of five oppositionary parties - the Union of Bosnia nad Herzegovina Socialdemocrats (UBSD), Socialdemocratic Party (SDP), Muslim-Bosniak Union (MBO), Republican Party and Croatian Peasant Party. This coalition has also proposed candidates in the whole area of Bosnia and Herzegovina, meaning Republika Srpska too. Two persons are proposed for the joint Bosnian Presidency - the leader of the Croatian Peasant Party Ivo Komsic and Sead Avdic from the Socialdemocratic party. Their list for the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is lead by the mayor of Tuzla and president of the UBSD Party, Selim Beslagic, and the list for the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina, by the vice president of UBSD, Sejfudin Tokic.

On the lists of this coalition are also the names of prominent politicians from pre-war Bosnia and Herzegovina, as are the former member of the collective presidency of SFR of Yugoslavia Bogic Bogicevic and prominent politician Zdravko Grebo.

Neither Silajdzic's Party for Bosnia, nor the Joint List have too much chance to threaten more seriously the ruling SDA and HDZ parties. In the elections in Mostar, which were a form of a test for the September elections, the Joint List received only some three percent of the vote. If Silajdzic and Joint List have unitedd, their chances would have been much greater. Some chance to win has the UBSD of Beslagic, but only in the city of Tuzla, but not in the Tuzla canton, where the SDA has more clout.

The situation is similar in the Republika Srpska, where the ruling SDS went on the offensive, pushing the divided and disorganized opposition to the fringes. The sources among the Bosnian Serbs say that there were a number of demands from Belgrade that the two big oppositionary blocks, the Union for Peace and Progress (SMP), lead by the Socialist Party of Republika Srpska, and the Democratic Patriotic Block (DPB) of the Banjaluka mayor Predrag Radic, make an agreement and put forward joint canidates against the SDS.

Supposedly, Belgrade wanted that the joint candidate for the president of Republika Srpska be Predrag Radic, but an agreement to that effect has not been reached. So, two lists remained, one lead by the leader of the Socialist Zivko Radisic, and the other lead by Radic. Those in the know have given some chances for a win to Radisic and Radic to win in Banjaluka, but only if they come forward jointly. Now everybody agrees that the SDS is an absolute favorite and that the two divided blocks will get much less vottes than they expect.

Radisic and Radic have to confront the SDS presidential candidate, current replacement ofr Radovan Karadzic, Biljana Plavsic. The position she currently holds will definitely enable her to expose herself to the public much more that her political opponents. Besides that, Plavsic has already become an important factor of continuity of the regime of the Bosnian Serbs. This could be of decisive importance, since the voters will decide in favor of those who guarantee that in the places they currently live the rule of they nation they belong to will prevail. The rough bosnian reality shows that this is the only condition for some form of security.

The experiiences of Mostar, can easily br projected on the forthcoming elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The first fact to be hadd in mind is that the parties participating in the elections in that city represented the two nations wehich comprise the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and who were allies duringthe last year of the war. Whe n the third, Serbian side, takes place in the Bosnian elections, the rift can only be deeper. If a miracle would happen (which is , of course, impossible) that the election results will not be as the biggest parties want them, each one of them has enough power to, hiding behind national interests, announce that it does not accept these results. The Mostar case also shows that nothing has changed in the stance these parties have to the Bosnian problem. SDa, representing the majority nation, wants the unification, HDZ insists on a division, fearing majorization.

This stance, of course, is shared by the Serbian side, which openly speaksabout strengthening of the independent Republika Srpska (RS) and its joining Serbia-FR Yugoslavia.

Added to this is the fact that the international community, which has established a military and partly political patronage over Bosnia and Herzegovina, in preparing the elections only cooperates with the regimes of the two entities.Since the decisive role in these regimes is played by the big nationalistic parties which bear the mortgage of the war, it is clear that even the preparation of the elecytions itself cannot go in favor of the so called democratic forces, which sincerely support civil society. For example, in the Commission for media, which has to oversee the relation of the media towards the parties in RS, are the editor of the daily Glas Srpski' which is under the control of the SDS, a representative of the police and a party official of the SDS. The situation is similar in the BiH Federation, where the elections are also prepared in sole cooperation with the authorities.

If nothing changes soon, the elections will be simple population census, and the political leaders which were there before and during the war will continue to strengthen their power unhindered in their small yards.

In the future joint presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, it seems, the seats will be reserved for the current Bosnian president Alija Izetbegovic, the president of the Federation Kresimir Zubak and the president of the Bosnian Serb parliament Momcilo Krajisnik. It is a matter of political personalities which were proposed to these posts by the ruling parties, which will surely attempt to keep the continuity of the politics of national entities to which they belong.

Two of these, Izetbegovic and Zubak, are also formal leaders of the tough national factions, while Krajisnik is supposed to be the man that leads from the shadow the tough nationalistic factions of the Bosnian Serbs. Obviously the ruling parties did not want to risk and allow the possibility that somebody who could make a compromise with the other two sides is elected in the central authorities.

As things stand now, a miracle would have to happen so that one of the three candidates of the ruling parties is not elected in the joint Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Izetbegovic is the undisputable leader for whom most of the Muslims will vote for, no matter for which office he would be a candidate, while Zubak practicaly has no match among the Bosnian Croats. Krajisnik cannot be described as a popular leader, but is considered as unyielding among the Bosnian Serbs, which is a true reference for a candidate to be elected in the central Bosnian authorites.

It is obvious that the ruling parties have consciously chosen the candidates which they can present as the people devoted to our cause,to whom the representatives of the other two nations will not be able to tailor the cap. It is hard to imagine that the mentioned three gentlemen could sit by themselves in one room, let alone to successfully lead the complicated multi-national state as is Bosnia and Herzegovina.A conclusion springs up by itself that all are getting ready to block as successfully as possible the future central authorities envisaged by the Dayton agreement, and not to enable their functioning.

Source: Belgrade by-wekly Republika, July 1-31, 1996

In his contribution to split weekly "Feral Tribune",Gojko Beric particularly concentrates the role that will be played by the refugees in the Bosnian elections.

Even though nothing dramatic will happen, the election fever has to be survived. Carl Bildt, the internsational governor of Bosnia and Herzegovina warns that these will be the most complicated elections in history. This is clear even to the biggest political idiot. The problem lies in what follows this statement of Bildt: If the Bosnian people do not want a unified and single Bosnia, there is nothing we can do.- Bildt has understood, or such a conclusion has been suggested to him from an authorised position - that the untangling of the current position leads towards ethnic, and then territorial division of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He is only left to announce that the international community will not bear any responsibility if that happens.But, actually it is the main culprit, because it is pushing something that is so complicated, that there are no chances of a favorable outcome, unless this does not understand retaining nationalistic elites in power.

This was shown by the first elections in Mostar. Announced as the first step towards the reintegration of Bosnia nad Herzegovina, they only cemented, the existing divisions. Some furror on the Croatian side was caused by the former footballer of the local team Velez, Josip Jole Musa, who stole some votes from the HDZ, but that was much less than expected.The fact that so many Mostar Croats (meaning not those that moved to the city during the war) have so massively voted for the dividsion of the city has a defeating effect for all those that have naively beleived that the effects of the four year war can be removed with the act of holding elections.The scared Bosniaks which have voted in the Western part of the city, near their houses and appartments. say that they have been exposed to a barrage of morbid Ustashi songs.

It cannot be said that the West is satisfied with the results of the Mostar elections, even a clear dose of disappointment is evident, but the US is not giving up on its intention to achieve an urgent result in Bosnia.It is pushing for the republican elections out of its own interests and is absolutely indifferent who will win in Bosnia. More precisely, The US has no illusions about some change, although it is trying to strengthen the position of oppositionary parties through finacial and material injections.

Almost 50 parties and a few independent candidates will enter the elections. The competition within the Bosnian-Croat Federation does not promise too many surprises. While one coalition in the form of the Joint List has been formed, an attempt has failed to form a centrist coalition between the son of the nation Haris Silajdzic (Party For Bosnia and Herzegovina) and the grandson of the nation, Rasim Kadic (Liberal Party).

The experience of the post-communist elections says that the voters are not inclined towards the parties, but towards the leaders. This will also be the case in Bosnia. Alija Izetbegovic and Haris Silajdzic will fight for the place in the three-member state presidency. The Croatian candidates are Kresimir Zubak of the HDZ and Ivo Komsic of the Joint List. It is expected that the third member from the Serbian side will be Momcilo Krajisnik, one of the toughest in the Bosnian Serb leadership.

The strongest competition among the Bosniak candidates is for the President of the Parliament.Candidate of the SDA is current Prime Minister Hasan Muratovic, while the candidate of the Joint List is Zlatko Lagumdzija, member of the SDP and a university professor. It is estimated that he has greater chances than Nijaz Durakovic, current member of the Bosnian presidency. It it said that these two are currently not in good personal relations.

While the Croatian national corps is securely politically homogenized, there are some divisions among the Bosniaks. Those are also emerging among the Bosnian Serbs. Milosevic is steadily strengthenning his country office in Banja Luka., convinced that the Socialist party will draw a great number of voters.But, not to many have doubts that the ruling SDS will keep them at a safe distance.

The key plot in this election movie is made by the refugees. It is thought that they currently number around a million and a half, most of them Bosniaks. They are the only ones that can change the course of events. If, for example, the majority of Bosniak refugees would vote in the cities where they lived until 1991, this would considerably change the balance of power in some areas. Theoretically, it coudl happen that the Serbs would lose power in Republika Srpska!

Source: Split weekly Feral Tribune, July 15, 1996

Zlatko Dizdarevic of the Sarajevo weekly "Svijet" wrote a comment on the forthcoming elections in the August 8, 1996, issue of the magazine.

Those paid for professional introduction of order and democracy around the world have occupied Bosnia, feverishly running around in white jeeps, from one end of the entities to another, opening up their offices, printing some kind of reports, analyses, manuals, rules, liuists, observations, lamentatio, accreditations there until exhaustion, booking those for some finacial offices somwhere.For a good salary, of course. Nobody cares of course that the out of their mind Bosnians have no idea, where, how and for hom or against they will vote. Nobody cares either that all these schemes, manuals, rules and observations are tailored for some other people, some other regions and different habits. That here, at the same time there are no free or objective TV stations to which future voters would stare, attemppting to understand something and decide in favor of somebody.

Those from the white jeeps run from an editorial office to another editorial office, taking away with them best journalists for a few hundred Deutch marks more, putting them in some radio or TV stations wh onobdy is watching or listening to.If they would have given them the money to stay id the offices they have worked in, and that they would emitt from there the messages that are to be heard, there would be some results. In this manner, it is important to say that the job is done, the bill are validated, and the heaps of money have returned where they came from - Europe.

Afther these democratic elections, we will get, as a result, the most absurd thing imaginable. At the top of the state, if that expression can still be used, there will be same those who have brought to this, including smoe war criminals as is Momcilo Krajisnik, whether somebody in the Hague says that or not. It could nob be any other way, when the people in REpublika Srpska have absolutely no idea what happened in Srebrenica, when the thieves in Herzeg-Bosnia are concocting a new way to escape the supposed American pressure, and the newly composed power-holders in Sarajevo keep on doing only what is necessary to stay in their power seats.

In such an atmosphere the so called elections are held, after which the new-old leaders can freely say: now even formally nobody can do anything to us, since we have verified our legitimacy with a World and European stamp. Now we will create a statre to our measure. We have already seen what that is.

Around Sarajevo and other larger cities of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the villages have moved to the cities anyway), the trainers in white are making up new themes to write up thousands of pages that they will fax to Brussels, Strasbourg, Geneva, or god knows where, after another seance of training tomorrow's voters. The papers that have gone to the half of Bosnia that is abroad have created a great confusion there. The one that wants to vote, has to pass a six month course, along with taking a long term loan to travel, bribe the border officials, food provisions and other.

Who does not like the results of such elections, does not have to worry. Like HDZ in Mostar, they can simply say - it doesn't count, and the circus continues its travels.. In September, this would be a lot of fun and games, except that the consequences of these fun and games are very tragic. The circus holders in white don't care though. They will already enjoy themselves somwhere else, and the reports about the post-election drama will be written by the Voters. If they will have anybody to write to.

Source: Sarajevo weekly Svijet, August 8, 1996