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Dinko Grubonjic of the Novi Sad weekly "Nezavisni," looks at the possible political combinations in Republika Srpska after the elections in a situation when none of the political parties have a majority.

It turns out that during the elections, the SDS won 20 seats for its people, while its allies, the Radicals won 12 seats (compared to previous 15). Serbian National Union is also falling, and will have 12 seats, while the Socialist party is on the rise, and it seems they will have 10 seats. The Coalition for the Unified and Democratic Bosnia will have 15 seats, while the Serbian Coalition and Socialdemocratic party will have 2 seats each. A very interesting fact is that the HDZ BiH will have no seats in the RS Parliament.

So, it is quite certain that nobody will have the majority in the RS Parliament, and that, if "Serbs do not agree," the key weight on the scales will be the members of the Coalition for Unified and Democratic Bosnia. It should be said that in the still operating RS parliament the situation is similar and that Dodik’s government is relying on the foundations of "non-principled" coalitions. That is why it is hard to believe that Poplasen will propose Krajisnik as the next prime minister. Even if he does this, this proposal would be rejected in the Parliament. In general, it is very hard to see from this perspective, how will the president use his wide prerogatives when he will not have the support of the parliamentary majority. In that case, there is talk of a possible blockade of the operation of the Parliament, even its dissolution and new elections, which could put Poplasen to test too.

During all this time, Dodik would continue to operate as the prime minister, with these or similar ministers. The "pause" would be used to strengthen the position of the post of the Serbian member of the BiH Presidency, which in Krajisnik’s case was reduced to "subversive" activity. What the Momcilo Krajisnik, "president in Presidency" (as SRNA and SRT called him) did not succeed in, will be a success of Zivko Radisic: during the first eight months he will be presiding in the BiH Presidency. But it is still a wait and see situation what will happen with Poplasen’s promise to offer all the Serbian parties in the RS Parliament possibility to form a government of national unity.

Source: Novi Sad weekly "Nezavisni," September 25, 1998

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