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Situation in Kosovo

Perica Vucinic of the Belgrade weekly Vreme, looks at the current situation in Kosovo in the May 11, 1996 issue of that magazine.

Since a gas bomb exploded in the hands of Albanian boy Nedzat Hetemi and killed him on April 27, the children of Albanian natives and Serb refugees in the village of Velika Reka no longer play together. After the kids had settled their accounts, the situation in Velika Reka, a village 15 km from Pristina on the road to Vucitrn, is tense again.Watching the boy's funeral which was attended by mere than three thousand people, Zdravka Glamocanin, a refugee from Sarajevo said she felt fear.

President of the Vucitrn branch of the leading Kosovo Albanian party---the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo (DLK)---Bajram Mullaku said it was a big funeral even for Albanian standards. Mullaku said that even more people would have come if people had found out about the incident earlier and if the funeral did not coincide with the greatest Islamic holiday Bairam. It is reasonable to presume that the fear of Zdravka Glamocanin, facing the demonstration of Albanian demographic power, would have been much greater, too. She would like to have more Serbs around anyway.

Rifat Hetemi was told by a policeman that his son had been killed by a ``bomb with gas.'' Judging by the smell of what has remained of the shell found in the grass by a Hungarian radio reporter---he did tell the truth.

The explosion broke off the short-lived friendship between Serbian and Albanian boys and brought unrest and tension to their parents. The explosion in Velika Reka is the latest in a sequence of explosions which started causing unrest in mid April when Zlatko Jovanovic, thinking that someone was trying to break into his car at three in the morning, killed Armend Daci, a student who was seeing off his visitors at this late hour. A week later, in just one hour, people were killed all over the place: policeman Milenko Bucic outside the police station in Stimalj Blagoje Okuka in Decani, Stana Radusinovic and Milenko Dragic in Kosovska Mitrovica, Dragana Necic who was being taken by the police to prison in a car which was sprayed with bullets, policemen Safet Kocan and Zoran Dacic were severely wounded in Pec.

Incidents of much smaller proportions had caused anxiety in Kosovo. The Serb side and authorities reacted to them with far less self-control. At present, the self-control in Kosovo is at its peak. Both sides are aware that a final clash might have terrible consequences. The patrols on check-points are relaxed. The Albanians, on their part, have removed an enormous portrait of Armend Daci, which had stood as a warning in Cafa, the place where Albanians gather.

The synchronization of actions---four attacks in just one hour---and lots of blood make us suspect that terrorism is the only explanation.The Liberation Army of Kosovo (OAK) informed the Pristina BBC correspondent that they were responsible. Since the explosions in Serb refugee camps, this is the second time that OAK has taken over responsibility for terrorist actions. To put it short, their message is:we are dissatisfied with the way and speed at which the Kosovo issue is being resolved. The threat is addressed both to the Kosovo Albanian's political leadership led by Ibrahim Rugova and the Serb authorities.

Shkellzen Maliqi, an independent intellectual from Pristina and one of the best analysts on Kosovo political issues, says there are no signs which would show who might be hiding behind the name of OAK. He has noticed that the bottom of the Balkans has been splashed with terrorism: attempted assassination of Macedonia's President Kiro Gligorov in Skoplje, explosions in Kosovo and explosions of car-bombs in Albania. Maliqi has no explanation to whether the terrorism is directed from inside or from abroad. A possible motive of the Albanians could be that extremists are impatient and do not trust that the international community and Rugova could resolve the problem. In the Serbian block, Maliqi believes, both the ruling party and the opposition could be settling their accounts by doing things in Kosovo, while terrorism could also be coming from abroad in which case the motive could be destabilization of the Balkans in order to maintain one's influence in it for as long as possible.

One of Ibrahim Rugova's closest associates Hydaiet Hysen has tried to deny the theory that synchronized shooting was organized by terrorists. He said that two terrorists in Decani spoke Serbian, that it was a little strange that two Serbian women were being transferred to another prison when there are more Albanian women who are imprisoned.

The Democratic Alliance of Kosovo (DSK) has sent people out to calm down the passions. Judging by the Albanians in Velika Reka, Ibrahim Rugova's authority is at stake. Rifat Hetemi said that every new event increases the fear and intensity of passions. New events added to the old experience push the situation closer to blowing up.

On the other hand, the Serbs are frightened by Albanian aspirations for independence and the moves of their own authorities. Dragan Lazic, who in the mid eighties vociferously opposed Serb majorization, says the Serbs are lethargic. ``The Serbs are still seeking refuge in central Serbia,'' Lazic said and added that the sale of real estate from leaving Serbs to the Albanians, which had been banned in mid-eighties, is now done with simple procedure.

Dragan Lazic, one of the few Serbs who dare speak against the regime, like every Serb in Kosovo had been in Gazimestan to see and hear Serbia's President Milosevic. He now asks, ``Who was it that did not like Milosevic then?'' and maintains that many things have changed for the worse because of Milosevic policies.

No one is satisfied in Kosovo. ``Serbia's southern province'' and its people are the prisoners of the maximalism of their leaders according to whom, on the Serb side ``Serbia is either united or there shall be no Serbia'' and on the other is ``Kosovo independent Republic.''

The fear from the course of events in late April has partly hushed up Albanian political discord. Adem Demaqi keeps repeating his formula for the reconciliation of the Albanian and Serbian stubbornness. This is his renewed thesis about Kosovo as an equal federal unit with Serbia and Montenegro in the federation which would be the basis for further integrations in the Balkans. Some people fear that Demaqi's ambition is to unite all forces. He, however, denied such claims. On the other hand, Serbian authorities do not have much space at their disposal either. The West is adding pressure and the maintenance of the ``regulating apparatus'' is more and more expensive. This is another reason why the number of policemen has been cut down. Essentially, the Kosovo situation is repeated day after day.

Since the outbreak of the crisis, never have the Serbs and Albanians been so solidary as they are now, fearing that shooting could become a daily event. But this fear is shared separately, as it has been in all these years. There are rumors in Pristina that negotiations have started and that Albanian leaders and Serb authorities might reach an agreement on the functioning of Albanian schools.

Source: Belgrade weekly Vreme, May 11, 1996

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It is indicative that anonymous terrorism reappeared in kosovo, but also in the wider albanian regions in the Balkans in the post-Dayton period. It started with the assassination attempt on Macedonian president Kiro gligorov, continued with the car-bomb explosions in Tirana and Durres, and is now focusing on Kosovo, as the most neuralgic point of the southern sector of the still unresolved Balkan crisis. As if somebody is in a hurry, while he is exiting the war in Bosnia, to open a new crisis hot spot. It is possible, without proof, to speculate with the theses of outside sponsors of dragging out the Balkan crisis, so that time could be gained and shaky strategic positions stabilized. But the possibility should not be excluded, which is even more logical, that these are nervous reactions of internal extreme factors which are afraid that in the post-dayton phase a compromise solutions unacceptable to them are being prepared.

What irritates the Albanian extremists is leaving of Kosovo within Serbia/Yugoslavia, a solution they find unacceptable, no matter to what kind of international guarantees are being given about the protection mechanisms of high self-rule and political, legal, cultural and economic autonomy. On the other side, the Serbian extremists are frightened by exactly these internationally guaranteed mechanisms, which they see as the beginning of the final loss of Kosovo.

The joint action of these destabilizing internal and external factors, even with some small steps towards the solution of the kosovo problem (the start of negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina; holding of the international conference on Kosovo, announced by the last EU ministerial meeting) could make terrorism the part of everyday life in Kosovo. This even more so, since both Belgrade and Pristina seem to be somewhat stunned by the developments. Belgrade will be particularly hit, since it invested so much in police control of Kosovo, and now it is shown that it is not even capable of solving a single crime in which the victims are from police ranks.

Source: Split weekly Feral Tribune', May 6, 1996

Relations between Serbia and Montenegro

The illusion of many that thought that servility of the Montenegrin state top toward Milosevic is turning into open distancing from the irrational Serb leader broke down recently like a house of cards. The statements of the Montenegrin Prime minister Djukanovic on the advantages of cooperation with the democratic world have come back like a boomerang to the Podgorica leadership. The political clairvoyant from Belgrade, mrs. Milosevic, strongly attacked Djukanovic in her magazine column - she did not directly mention his name, but she did mention jail. She was simply mad that his population might not be economically dependent from Belgrade.

Along with the article, there cam an expressly organized Days of Belgradein Podgorica, or more precisely: the days of SPS, lead by the second league guys like Branaslav Ivkovic and Nebojsa Covic. Montenegrins made their welcome with the first team: president Bulatovic, prime minister Djukanovic, Parliament president Marovic. They actually played a basketball game.

And then, form nowhere, Slobodan Milosevic appeared in the Montenegrin capital. It was the same day the vote was on in the Federal parliament about sacking of governor Avramovic. Along with formal federal president Zoran Lilic, he and the Montenegrin top watched the military exercise Laser 21 on the Montenegrin coast.

The orchestrated pressure of Belgrade on Podgorica yielded results. Aware of the power of the Belgrade couple, the calculating leadership of the DPS party, bowed down and radically toned its rethoric. This particularly the prime minister Djukanovic.
All in all, the hot May events have clearly shown that Montenegro is not succeeding to walk out from under the Belgrade umbrella, because its leadership is much inferior to the Markovic - Milosevic couple.

Source: Podgorica weekly Monitor, May 24, 1996

In his article, Vladimir Jovanovic discusses the background of the military exercises held in Montenegro in mid-May, watched also by Serbian president Milosevic.

The largest military exercise planned for this year in FRY attracted Milosevic to Montenegro, first time in four years. Is there coincidence in these two facts ? General Radosav Martinovic, a Serb from Kosvo and deputy of general momcilo Perisic, Army chief of staff, as well as the complete generals corps, are decisive in their intention not to leave anything to chance.General Martinovic, until recently the first operative commander of the Second Army (Montenegro), from recently on duty in Belgrade, had ample time to visualize and define the political processes in Montenegro, their scope, character and final outcome, which could be very dangerous to integrity of FRY. The sporadic tension that break out on the official line between Podgorica and Belgrade are only additional elements that make the fear stronger than hope. It is actually estimated that the widening social critique of the role of the Army and Serbian politics in Montenegro could easily turn into unpredictable and that the officers and junior officers could be put in front of a dilemma: should they remain in the role of the Belgrade policemen or do the have the strength put themselves under the Montenegrin administrative control.

It seems that Belgrade chief command seriously counts with this possibility, which could cause ferocious reactions in the pre-strategic Adriatic forces, based in the Podgorica corps, coastal bases and airport Golubovci.Moreover, it is counted on that the Yugoslav army in Montenegro could be faced with military pressure which could have a function of defining their new status, so such a scenario was taken as a cause for these newest exercise.This hypothetical situation which came about as a fruit of a conclusion that the army in Montenegro more and more resembles an elephant in a porcelain shop, hides in itself the scenario already seen in secessionist republics where the army functioned as an extended arm of Milosevic policies.So, the army would have the role in Montenegro to secure Milosevic's control over the Adriatic coast.

The goals of the exercise were planned in this manner.The public was informed about the maneouvres under the name Laser 21 a few days late, only when the TV cameras registered the arrival of the members of the High command council.According to authors sources, the exercise started as early as May 10, and the public saw only the sequences from the last day of the decisive strike.

The sub-text of the exercise Laser 21 is breaking of the Montenegrin rebellion and its support from abroad and bringing thee command and unit structure to the ability to carry out this task.

Source: Podgorica weekly Monitor, May 24, 1996

The Work of the Hague Tribunal

Tadic says that putting in motion of such a mighty judicial mechanism so that a local security guard could be put in front of justice seemed problematic to many, including the government in Sarajevo, even the Hague tribunal itself, whose officials admitted that they would rather see in front of them some of the mightiest people in Bosnia, first of all Radovan Karadzic and general Mladic. But, they have to deal with what they have, and they have Dusan Tadic.

The indictment against him is eighty pages long, and pertains to murder, rape, torture and illegal deportations (ethnic cleansing), which according to the prosecution, he conducted in the Omarska camp near Prijedor.The prosecutors went a long way to make the indictment as it is, but Tadic defense went even a longer way. His legal team led by the Dutch lawyer Vladimiroff, firstly negated the right of the Tribunal to try Tadic and called it a political tool.Today, they do not only recognize the jurisdiction of the Tribunal, but do not even deny that the Omarska crimes were committed. The defense is now based on the premise that the Tadic case is based on mistaken identity.

Based on this thesis, Tadic did not even step into Omarska, but the crimes were committed by a man who resembles him. This unscrupulous double, supposedly, even shaved let his beard grow along with Tadic's rhythm.

To prove this, the defense proposed the witnesses which could confirm that at the time stated in the indictment, Tadic was not at the place of the crime. One of the proposed witnesses is the commander of Omarska, Zeljko Mejakic, who stated that Tadic was never in the camp. But, Mejakic is not willing to repeat that in the Hague, where he is indicted himself. That is why Tadic threatened with a hunger strike, unless his witnesses are permitted to give their statements via satellite from Banja Luka. The court fulfilled his request, but Tadic came to stumbling blocks where hi did not expect them. His lawyers was obstructed by local Serb authorities in the Prijedor region. Tadic even insists that the chief of Prijedor police Simo Drljaca threatened with death the witnesses who might testify on his behalf.

With such a turn of events, one outcome is definite. No matter what is the fate of the indictment against Tadic, it seems that the political background of the crimes in Bosnia will be established. Tadic, no matter how he himself is of little importance is perfectly illustrative of the fate of Bosnia.

Source: Novi Sad weekly Nezavisni May 17, 1996

Jelena Lovric of the AIM agency writes from Zagreb in the April 26, 1996, issue of the Novi Sad weekly Nezavisni on the indictments of the Hague tribunal against Croatian army officials.

The Hague tribunal became an important factor of the internal political scene of Croatia. It divided the ruling party and this is currently its breaking point. The opposition has kept itself on the sidelines concerning this question, letting the ruling HDZ party keep that hot potato in its hands.There is no joy and radiance in the public expressed when the first indictments against Serb criminals came out; now every indictment, even those against the Serbs, are received with unease and fear: who is the next one here ?

The possible candidates for the Hague react in two manners - part of them has retreated and is almost not seen in public, at least not in the previously expressed bullish manner, which was so characteristic of them. The other part denies everything connected with the Hague tribunal, moralizes about the double face of the world and insists on the inviolability of the Croatian sovereignty and guarding of the dignity of the Croatian people.

In that way, general Slobodan Praljak, who was a general commander of the HVO during the Bosniak - Croat war, and as such, supposedly has particular merit for bringing down the old bridge in Mostar, angrily states that Croatia often accepts, with unbearable ease the international demands. Pointing out France as an example, he says that the whole world condemns its nuclear explosions, but that this did not deter it, they dare the whole world, and nobody can do them anything .Praljak insists that the Croats do the same.

Similarly to this goes the thinking in the official politics, running from one mistake into another when the Hague tribunal is concerned. First it insisted that the side that is defending itself - and according to that version, Croatia only conducted a defensive war - cannot commit crimes.Then , for a long time, the public was being persuaded that Croatia, according to the law, cannot give any of its citizens to anybody. Due to this, it was no wonder that the public was puzzled when a law came in front of the Parliament on cooperation with the Tribunal, which explicitly said that it will enable such extraditions. When the indictments were raised against a group of Bosnian Croats, Tudjman moved general Tihomir Blaskic from HVO and promoted him to the post of the Chief inspector of the Croatian Army, which was seen abroad not only as admitting that Zagreb had ingerencies over HVO, but also as a direct provocation against the Tribunal and its justice.

But the perversion that those that have conducted the war, insisting that the joint life is not possible, now, in the name of joint life insist on general amnesty (probably amnesia too) is a logical consequence of the Dayton construct by which the fathers of war are forced to become parents of peace. In any case, it is obvious that Croatia would have nothing against the possibility that the Tribunal fails and fades away.Maybe it is counting on this, in any case, it is attempting to buy time.

Some mid-solution was found for Blaskic, who supposedly appeared in front of the Court voluntarily, but obviously, there was little free will there. Supposedly he was already in house arrest in Zagreb, and was broken down when minister Susak told him that he simply has to go to the Hague.

Source: Novi Sad weekly Nezavisni, April 24, 1996

Internal political events

Everything that night in the Zagreb hotel Intercontinental had an aura of European. At one table sat the Croatian ambassador to the Netherlands Branko Salaj and the president of the Croatian Legal Center and Zagreb lawyer Slobodan Budak. At the next were university professor Slaven Letica, writer Andjelko Vuletic, owner of the magazine Panorama Ante Zuzu and former commander of the HVO enforcement unit Mladen Naletilic-Tuta.

At one moment, Budak and Salaj started discussing Mladen Naletilic-tuta. Budak started telling Salaj what was written in the Croatian press about Tuta Naletilic as one of the untouchable leaders of Herzeg-Bosnia in the Croatian media. And a lot was written, Naletilic himself saying a lot of controversial things: about his emigre days, about a supposed Interpol arrest warrant, about his connections with the guerilla and extreme left, about suspicions of his ties with the former Yugoslav secret service, about the war with the Muslims...

Budak actually did not have a chance to say much. A man sitting at the table closes to him and Salaj, who was obviously paying close attention to what they were saying, came to the table and started cursing Budak. Budak recognized Jozo Smuch, a man questioned for possible war crimes as a member of the unit of Tomislav Mercep and now Tuta Naletilic's bodyguard. After the verbal attack, he left. After fifteen minutes he came back, this time accompanied by Tuta Naletilic. A verbal conflict ensued, in which at one moment Naletilic slammed the glasses of Budak's face, leaving the hotel after that.

The assistant minister of interior Zdravko Zidovec, who saw the incident from a close table, visited Budak a few days later, seeing that he had a large cut on his face and a partial amnesia. Hew does not remember much of the incident, including how he got home.

Other witnesses say though that the former leader of the HVO enforcers told Budak after he hit him that he was marked and that he will get his. But his bodyguard did not have enough, he actually hit Budak head to head, causing the main damage. Although Budak does not remember this, the witnesses say that he approached the stunned counsellor of the Dutch embassy telling him Look what they did to me.

This is not the first attack on Budak. His house in Karlobag was destroyed in reprisal for his activities as the former vice president of the Croatian Helsinki Committee.

Source: Split weekly Feral Tribune, May 6, 1996

Regular contributor of the Zagreb by-weekly Arkzin Bozo Matic, discusses in the April 26 issue of that magazine the background of the wave of crime in Croatia.

After the announcement in the TV news that the life of former tourism minister Anton Popovic cost 15 thousand DEM, nothing will be the same in Croatian society. After a series of robberies, mutilations in automobiles and under bridges, blackmail and payoffs that filled the daily papers, this regime, through the media it controls, admits that dirty businesses, into which people from state top are voluntarily or involuntarily drawn into could end up as shamefully as with the common members of crime underground. Besides the fear that has crept among many high officials it has also shown the possible way for the disintegration of the ruling HDZ movement. It will eat itself.

The killing of Anton Marcelo Popovic is only the most radical conclusion of the situation in which somebody, due to a 70 thousand DEM debt or some similar reason, has ordered a murder. This is a most illustrative example of the unfinished story of the Croatian transition to privatized economy.

Another example is of the former director of the Croatian TV-HRTV, Ivan Parac. It was well known that he brought dozens of people into the company, that he spent excessive sums of somebody else's money, but nothing could be even whispered about that, while Parac was a favorite. At the moment a scapegoat was needed to cover, god knows what other machinations in the ruling party, Parac was proclaimed as the key guilty party and filled the papers for a day or two.

Other examples are overabundant.

Is then there room for surprise that the spectrum of people attempting to push themselves into a HDZ electoral or party list ranges from workers to writers and singers. In their interviews they orderly state that they recognize themselves in the HDZ program, and that whole their life they dreamed about a party like that. In their eyes their a gleam of hope to sing in front of the president, write for the president, act for the president, even work for the president. Of course, in their own companies and without fear of financial police.Wasn't Sime Medanic, who supposedly ordered the murder of popovic president of a local HDZ branch, along with late minister himself, and wasn't the perpetrator Sinisa Dvorski Stracabosko called Rambo the soldier of that party ?

Source: Zagreb by-weekly Arkzin , April 26, 1996

Serbia

In the sea of efforts to rationalize the incomprehensible policies of delaying the normalization of relations between the FRY and IMF, one theory says that Milosevic does not like the fact that the arrangement (which would also regulate the division of the former Yugoslavia's 1.2 billion USD reserves in Switzerland and the division of its 4.4 billion USD foreign debt) would reveal the scandal over the purchase of the Slovenian debt.

On April 20-21, Nasa Borba quoted federal administration sources who said the letter the NBJ sent to the federal government asked what happened to the 53 million USD worth of the Slovenian foreign debt which the NBJ bought in 1993 and which were transferred to several individuals. That and other reports led to the assumption that Milosevic does not accept the agreement with the IMF out of fear that financial trickery will be revealed.

That hypothesis was developed by SPO leader Vuk Draskovic at an opposition rally in Novi Sad. He said the Slovenian debt bonds were worth 530 million USD (Nasa Borba later corrected its figure) which the NBJ bought in the hyperinflation and whose value has now grown creating an opportunity for the state to earn something. The bonds didn't go to the state or bank but to a private individual who took them to Cyprus and spread them out among several others. Draskovic said that is robbery and added that ``there is no ideology there, no party, it's just thief after thief, defending the interests of thieves under the guise of national and state interests.''

One indication that this is not just an assumption is the secretive reply by Governor Avramovic to a question at a meeting with Belgrade metal workers' union representatives on April 23. He said he'll be able to say something about the money in Cyprus if the union supports him within the next two months.

It's interesting that two years ago, the whole thing got almost no reception in official Belgrade although the debt was bought at a price of 24-26 cents on the dollar by leading para-state banks and even though a leaked report said the mediators (Beogradska Banka, Beobanka, Jugobanka, Vojvodjanska Banka) got huge percentages immediately and didn't use the swap method to get into the share holding capital of Slovenia's creditors. Because of the silence of official FRY bodies and the bitter assessment of ``patriot'' economist Zarko Ristic who said at the time that Serb banks repaid their debts and didn't invest in old Yugoslav debts, anyone could have concluded then that the operation had advocates and opposition. No one ever revealed who ordered or pushed the buying of the foreign debts of the other Yugoslav republics. The deal was allegedly done under NBJ Governor Dusan Vlatkovic. Later, Milan Panic, under his short federal premiership, said he would unite the debts of the Yugoslav republics by buying up the entire debt.

Apart from that indication of a possible goal, old newspapers provide another clue. When a rebellion against privatization broke out in Matroz over a year ago, one of the arguments voiced by people who chased the private owners out of the paper production plant was that they bought the plant with old foreign debt bonds which they bought for a song. Theoretically at least, anyone who bought up bonds for 1.2 billion USD of the Serbian debt for just 300 million USD could have ``privatized'' half the Serbian economy.

The problem is that the foreign creditors pool (where the Serb debt holders haven't said anything yet) allowed Slovenia to reach a separate agreement. Will the ``Cyprus debts'' now lose their value? And why are they allegedly still in Cyprus when every lawyer or middle-man has to transfer all his profits to whoever issued his orders? Borka Vucic who has been in Cyprus for the past five years and has received visits from the Milosevic family occasionally (wife, son, daughter and Unkovic) has to know something about those papers. Since her personal honesty is the stuff of legends, we should expect a denial that she is ``the private governor'' of the Milosevic portfolio of state debts and that it's illogical to expect her to drop down to NBJ governor (which she has already denied).

There are other unresolved issues here. Is the NBJ looking for the debt bonds which could have cost just 133 million USD from its reserves or did they cost much more? What commissions were paid? Who in the NBJ should be arrested for doing nothing for years to get the bonds back? Who should get the political blame for the suffering of people amid a shortage of medication, power and everything else while someone was doing deals abroad?

Source: Belgrade weekly Vreme, April 27, 1996

Drasko Djuranovic writes in the May 10, 1996 issue of the Podgorica weekly Monitor about the background of the changes in the Federal electoral law in FRY.

The essence of the changes of the electoral law (recently adopted in the Federal parliament) is formally of a technical nature - a number of electoral units was raised. In that respect, for the next federal elections Serbia will be divided into 27, instead of nine electoral units, and montenegro into 12, instead of one electoral unit. The Federal government insisted that the changes were purely cosmetic. Except for a sudden care for development of contacts between the MP's and the voters, supposedly the government took into the account the theoretical aspect of the electoral system.

The background of all this was soon explained by the opposition in Serbia and Montenegro.The National party of Montenegro stated that this law is proof of the fear of the trilateral coalition DPS-SPS-JUL (communist party of mrs. Markovic) of loosing power , saying that this is a refined method of stepping away from the proportional electoral system.

The reasons for the change have to be looked at from the standpoint of the change relations of power in the Federal parliament. With the forced peace U-turn the ruling coalition SPS-DPS was forced to give up on the services of the former war buddies, the Radicals of Vojislav Seselj. This meant the loss of two thirds majority in the federal parliament, essential to pass key laws. An unpleasant situation came about for the ruling parties in Serbia and Montenegro, used to sovereign rule: not a single decision in the federal parliament can be brought about without the approval of the part of the opposition.The essential reason though lies in the strategic course taken by Milosevic's SPS and their political followers in Podgorica: sovereign power has to be secured in the Federal parliament, even when their politics looses the support of the majority of the population. Simply, the proportional model cannot secure that.The matter was solved simply.division of the electoral base was seen as the saving grace.

The majority electoral system is being re-introduced through the small door, whose characteristic is to favor the party that is getting even the smallest majority. This is where the interests of SPS and DPS coincided. According to this, the voters in Montenegro will elect on the average 2,5 MP's while in Serbia it will be four MP's to a electoral unit. At that, the sovereign right of territorial division will come to the SPS-DPS coalition.

In the electoral units where it is expected that SPS or DPS have only a slight majority, only one MP will be elected. Where it is felt that the ruling party has a visible majority, the so called unification of votes will enter, with the rearrangement of electoral units. This model of winning was already applied at the Federal elections of 1992.

The opposition parties in Serbia and Montenegro are placed in an unenviable position to choose between two bad solutions: either they will jointly boycott the Federal elections, or they will form a joint oppositionary list to confront the ruling parties in Serbia and Montenegro. A unified oppositionary boycott in Serbia is hard to expect - Seselj already announced that he will compete with SPS and that he will not accept cooperation with other oppositionary parties. In Montenegro, besides the Liberal party, which will remain consequential and not participate in Federal elections, it is also realistic to expect the boycott of other oppositionary parties. The joint montenegrin oppositionary list would really look like fun to the ruling DPS : a joint list of the National party, SDP, and New radicals would really be disparate.

Source: Podgorica weekly Monitor, May 10, 1996

In its issues of April 27, and May 25 1996,Belgrade weekly Vreme brought the articles of its regular commentator on the internal political events in Serbia, Milan Milosevic on the positioning of the ruling party and the opposition for the winter elections.

After realizing their ratings have dropped, Socialist activists were admonished from the top and some were thrown out at the SPS congress for not fighting the opposition hard enough.The new Socialist party elite was appointed at the congress and is now directly obstructing the opposition. They're not going after Seselj although he seems to be their greatest threat. Seselj did them a favor when he launched accusations against Avramovic. They banned democratic center parties from staging a rally in Belgrade and when the ban was ignored they prevented them from erecting a stage.

They threw propaganda leaflets at an opposition rally in Nis and claimed in a statement filled with lies that the people expressed their disagreement with the destructive opposition with songs about Milosevic. In Novi Sad they sent activists to an opposition rally with banners and offensive slogans to try to disrupt the gathering. The police stood there in a cordon.

One side is offering a glowing future with no changes, the other is demanding changes because of the future. Things aren't just that relative and that is obvious in a statement after the Novi Sad rally and clashes at it. The statement said ``citizens of Novi Sad know that Serbia does not have to listen to foreign elements, they know what peace, security and stability means in the Balkans.''A constant in opposition politics, the statement said, is that they want power and don't know what to do with it unlike the ruling party which does know. The Socialists seem to believe that if they fall from power we're doomed.

When the few Socialist activists clashed with people at the opposition rally, the police set up a cordon to separate the two groups. Serbian Renewal Movement MP Miroslav Negrojevic complained that the police screamed at him and hit him when he tried to calm things down. In other countries some official would lose his job over the beating of a member of parliament. But it seems the police intervention was not excessive and the activists withdrew.Publicly or in secret, the police always protected the authorities in its clashes with the opposition. In a Serbia where elections come with stepped up police pressure, the opposition won't have an easy job scoring political points but it seems the public isn't sensitive to the misuse of the police.

The Socialists are now fighting windmills, accusing opposition leaders of using street tactics to get to power. The thing is that the opposition has matured and no longer thinks it can take power in that way. Milan Bozic, an SPO MP, explained in Srpska Rec that the project of toppling the authorities has failed and that the opposition leaders were part of the project. ``In that sense, it would be logical for our members to get rid of us and bring in a new generation of politicians who cold bring a victory in some other way. That unfortunately didn't happen because we didn't get power and there wasn't enough energy generated by ambitious dissatisfied people inside the opposition parties because the parties were weakened by the defeat.''

That analysis might be right, the opposition lost six years in pointless charges. If some opposition member learned something from those six years we could have a vital new quality. Political skill takes time to learn.
The Socialists know that the new opposition tactics could spread the feeling that the authorities are not irreplaceable. They're not really afraid of the opposition but of the conscious voter.

Young speakers are calling for changes in ourselves so we can change them with increasing frequency. The authorities don't like that and are carefully dismantling enclaves of civil awareness and a civic society.If Serbia tries to get out of that vicious circle, the road to the next century will be secured by the cordon of boys in blue.

Source: Belgrade weekly Vreme, April 27, 1996

The title ``Ratting on Serbia'' on Vecernje Novosti's May 18 front page was printed in the biggest bold face type available. While FRY, Serbian and Montenegrin officials were talking to Klaus Kinkel and advocating state and national interests, a select few members of the Serbian opposition used their half hour with the German foreign minister to ``rat on their country.'' The title stood over a photo of DS leader Zoran Djindjic, GSS leader Vesna Pesic and SPO leader Vuk Draskovic sitting at a table and talking to Kinkel.

Draskovic responded effectively at a press conference on May 22: ``There's nothing to rat about since everyone knows Milosevic's record as a statesman. What did he say to Kinkel? Why is he hiding? He got an ultimatum. He's the one who thought he could use his media to trick the entire planet. Now the bills here and he's signing it, selling out, giving up, agreeing to everything just to stay in power.''

Kinkel's talks with state officials got more air time on state TV than anything else. It isn't clear why all the fuss about the opposition talks, or is it just because of some old state paranoia?

Interestingly, Vojislav Seselj told his Serbian Radical Party (SRS) congress on May 18 that the Draskovic's SPO are ``US agents in Serbia.'' He said he wouldn't allow foreign mercenaries to rule Serbia and added that the SRS would topple the Milosevic regime and destroy the treasonous opposition coalition.

You can't really say the SPS-SRS coalition has been restored but it was clear last week that the SPS and JUL are using Seselj's services. The authorities are marked by the rigid narrowing of the ``court'' in what could be another indication of the coalition.

The New Democracy (ND), which saw itself as a bridge between the authorities and the democratic center, paid for its stand in the ousting of Governor Avramovic with an internal crisis. The ND must have had a mediation mission between the central bank and the authorities but opted for Milosevic instead of Avramovic. An unforgivable servility since Milosevic didn't need that vote in federal parliament. ND deputy leader Rodoljub Draskovic left the party and sent an open letter (on May 18) to the ND president and leaders saying he was relieving himself of all duties in the ND ``because it betrayed Avramovic in parliament.'' In a letter to Avramovic, Draskovic said it is his moral responsibility to leave the ND.

The party responded with a complaint over his decision and added that the party couldn't comment upon his personal decision. Rodoljub's brother Vuk (of the SPO, the ND's old coalition partner) said he was sorry his brother had joined the ND and was glad he had left.

Djindjic, Draskovic and Pesic told an opposition rally in Uzice that Serbia faces two roads: ``one leads to isolation, chaos and poverty and the other to Europe.' Their three parties are still trying to convince voters to continue struggling for what Avramovic represented. Djindjic's Democratic Party (DS) printed a poster saying ``Avramovic urged a stable dinar, safe jobs, economic reform and Serbia's return to the international community. By ousting the man who saved us from hyperinflation, Milosevic has shown that he wants to turn Serbia into an isolated Communist island with the people growing increasingly poor and his personal bank account in Cyprus increasingly full. Help us oppose that mad policy which is leading Serbia into ruin and oust the corrupt and incompetent Socialist authorities at the next elections.''

The authorities are engaged in their favorite sport---making nothing seem like something. Federal Prime Minister Radoje Kontic told the opening ceremony of the agriculture fair in Novi Sad that the government stands firm in the policy of a stable dinar exchange rate. The opposition is voicing suspicion that money is already being printed.

At his May 21 press conference, Vuk Draskovic asked his spokesman to give him some money and showed reporters newly printed bank notes without a seal, with Avramovic's signature and serial numbers from AO5870401 to AO5870500. He said they got them from dealers on the street who said they came from ``an army service,'' whatever that means.

The authorities are controlling social unrest like a forest fire; putting it out in one spot and shutting it up in another. They got Nis strikers to quiet down last week. This week the strikes went to Kraljevo (2,000 workers), Pec (2,000) and the rest of Serbia by medical staff.

Source: Belgrade weekly Vreme, May 25, 1996

In the May 18, 1996 of the Belgrade weekly Vreme Nenad Lj. Stefanovic and Zoran Kosanovic discuss the situation concerning the largest strike in one of president Milosevic's strongholds, the city of Nis.

When thousands of hungry and unhappy employees of ``preserved'' giant companies took to the streets of Nis with employees from Angropromet and Jastrebac shouting ``Our Children Are Hungry,'' Mile Ilic, head of the Socialists in the city, the visionary didn't say a word. Ilic didn't speak up later when the initial slogans calling for bread were replaced with shouts of Mile Thief.

Many people in Nis claim Ilic was in Belgrade for consultations all through the strikes while others say he was hiding in the local SPS headquarters in the best guarded street in the city. The main Nis police precinct is located just 50 meters from the SPS building which also houses the local bureaus of Politika and Ekspres dailies. That along with a bakery owned by Branko Todorovic (Ilic's best friend and deputy mayor) was the best guarded building in the city while the workers protest was ongoing. The heavy security fit in completely with what Mayor Stojan Randjelovic was telling the strikers: ``We will take all necessary legal measures against anyone who tries to block the city.''

The strikes were started by employees at the Angropromet trade company who spent two weeks asking for their salaries (they haven't been paid since December) and help with the company's 23 million dinar debt. The local authorities didn't seem to pay much attention to the 1,600 Angropromet strikers whose company was the city's main supplier and now owns 250 mainly empty shops. It's a company that has spent the longest time dying and many in the city have their eye on the shops just in case the authorities don't step in to help. There were even suggestions that the salespeople on strike were all ``thieves.''

The social dissatisfaction and hopelessness in the company lasted too long and some 10 days later other companies remembered that they hadn't been paid in months, that their children are hungry and that they planned to go on strike in March but didn't because of the SPS congress.

When Electronic Industry (EI) workers (13,000) took to the streets on May 8 along workers from Min, the strike became a very serious cause for concern by the authorities despite the silence of the state media. Although all the strikers were asking for their minimum wage of 130 dinars and promises of work, the fact that 20,000 workers were on strike in Nis, the socialist bastion, at the same time that their counterparts in Belgrade were preparing to show their support for Avramovic was very alarming.

Serbian ministers came to Nis (Srdjan Nikolic to calm the Angropromet strike) along with SPS officials (Slavica Djukic-Dejanovic, Bosko Perosevic to see what Ilic was going to do about the strike) but none of them had the courage to face the strikers.

The strikes were staged every day till about 2:00 p.m. Most of the strikers were in a hurry to get back to their villages in the afternoon to work their land so they could survive. There were jokes that said the strike was half a workers rebellion and half a farmers uprising. Most of the support voiced at the protests was for Avramovic with calls for him not to leave and not start printing money and the city authorities were booed for not securing money for salaries. Most of the strikers who talked to reporters insisted on anonymity fearing reprisals and convinced that most of what they say won't be published by anyone. Opposition activists just monitored the strike.

Conspiracy theories were abundant from the start of the strike. The local authorities tried to avoid their responsibility and blamed the opposition which hasn't done too well in the city and whose existence is ignored by the media. Some opposition circles said the whole thing is the result of a conflict among the socialists themselves or that the workers were pushed into a strike to demand money from Avramovic. They mentioned the fact that most union leaders are either SPS or JUL members. Some theories said the strike was supposed to be an attempt to exert pressure on Belgrade to come up with the money to reconstruct the Nis economy. The more so since Nis has not had a powerful representative in Belgrade for a long time.

There might be a grain of truth in all those conspiracy theories. If they didn't organize everything the socialists certainly had nothing against a little pressure on Belgrade for money at first since Ilic has said he intends to build an opera and ballet in the city as well as a lot of other buildings. Central Nis has seen a virtual city of boutiques spring up full of smuggled goods at prices the strikers could only dream of.

Everyone who took to the streets denied any political motivation and mainly mentioned two things: hunger and a feeling of no prospects for themselves and their children. EI employee Zorica Seferovic said she and her co-workers were practically pushed into the street: ``When you don't get paid for months the only thing you can do is start smuggling. I have two children, my husband works for the department stores which are also on strike. We are not scum; we are serious family people who have been forced onto the street although our place is in the factory.''
``If they're saying we have party affiliations, report us as the party of the hungry, humiliated, naked and indebted,'' Milomir Mladenovic (EI) told VREME and added that the dismissal of EI director Bora Mitrovic is just someone's effort to calm the workers. He insisted that the strike should continue until the reasons why ``we have become so impoverished'' are disclosed. Asked how he and his family survived without a salary for five months, Mladenovic took off the shoes that were falling apart on his feet and showed torn stockings.

Several strikers voiced doubts that anything would be published about them. ``We know who in Belgrade won't let you publish,'' one of them said. ``Here in Nis it's Mile Ilic. If you report this you lose your license. Hungry workers don't exist for TV.''

To the state media EI was a holding company with certain problems and one of the best companies in Serbia in which ``production is rising.'' During the strike VREME learned that the company's official debt stood at 100 million dinars, that just 10-15% of its capacities were operating and that even the biggest possible financial injection would bring salaries up to only 200 dinars. The EI collapse includes the departure of a large number of experts or the fact, reported by a newspaper that did not cover the strike, that EI TV sets are several hundred DEM more expensive than Sony.

Min strikers told a similar story. Several thousand people in the company were declared surplus workers and about 4,000 are on permanent paid leave. But their director is hanging on firmly because he's a member of the SPS main board.

Ljubisa Mitrovic, professor at the Nis school of philosophy, JUL coordinator for the city and JUL directorate member, said everything that happened in the city was the consequence of decades of problems and delays in introducing serious economic changes and reforms. Mitrovic said the war delayed the problem even more, problems piled up and workers lost their patience. In his statement on the strike, Mitrovic stressed many things that point to failures by the local authorities. Obviously SPS JUL relations aren't that good here. JUL members in Nis meet in the local theater because the local SPS board is in no hurry to secure offices for them.

In his talk with VREME, Mitrovic mentioned ``Mafiacracy'' which has been robbing the economy and undermining the system. Asked why all this is happened in Nis and not some other place in Serbia where economic giants are also facing collapse, Mitrovic said: ``The easiest explanation is the story of political conspiracies. But that is also false. After Belgrade, the biggest concentration of factory workers and the urban middle class which has dropped to the bottom in Serbia is in Nis. These aren't just protests by workers but also by their families. At the same time, a class of nouveau riche has risen and are ruthlessly digging into the urban environment and getting rich quick. I criticized the city program of commercial communal services and the spending of money for shopping centers while the most serious problems haven't been solved.''

After several days of protests, the strike by hungry workers lost its strength. Angropromet workers who were the first to protest, went back to work selling only bread and milk after a faxed promise from Belgrade that their minimum wage for December is ready (100 dinars) to be collected. Most of them don't believe their company will ever get well. Min workers also got some money and their director Milovan Krivokapic told Tanjug that the planned production will stand at 450 million dinars with just 50 million needed to get it started. EI workers were left last and they got a new director and salaries for December. They plan to freeze their strike for a while to see if the rest of their demands will be met.

The authorities seem to have used the break in the strike last weekend to calm down the protest with a combination of blackmail, threats and promises. Many union activists were called in for ``informative talks'' and companies were pitted against each other. Min strikers were told the EI workers betrayed them when their demands were met. When 10,000 EI workers marched to Min that day they found the factory gates locked and some surprised Min employees who told them they thought their protest had ended. In other companies, workers were given 100 dinars each just to stay calm.

University dean Mira Krstovic told VREME she was surprised by the fact that workers from several companies went on strike at the same time. So far, she said, everyone looked after only their own interests and the authorities used that to keep them confronted.
One of the epilogues of the two strikes is that some 30,000 people have been excused from paying their communal and other bills indefinitely. For many people that, along with their back pay, will be enough to keep their minds off a strike.

The authorities are doing what they can and they seem to know what the strikers are thinking. They'll only pay what they have to.

Source: Belgrade weekly Vreme , May 18, 1996