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The chief commentator of the Belgrade weekly "Vreme," Stojan Cerovic, looks at the new attack on the independent media in Serbia in the October 17, issue of this weekly.

There are two possible answers to the question why this new attack. One is that the Milosevic regime has really begun a decisive move to eliminate the last democratic facade, particularly due to the concessions that it has been forced to make in Kosovo. Such a reaction would not be unexpected, because this regime has been fostering years long animosity to everything Western, whereas it considers the democratic facade, independent media and the opposition as internal enemies which it is supposed to bear.

So, if Milosevic has accepted a reasonable agreement concerning Kosovo, and if he is sending congratulatory notes to himself, this does not mean he does not feel defeated.

The second possible explanation is somewhat more favorable and would indicate that the strengthened censorship belongs primarily to the Radicals, who might feel that the agreement in Kosovo threatens their position in power. Seselj took a big leap in this bombing affair, he obviously dominated the Serbian government, he pushed towards the confrontation with NATO and "the spies and traitors" with full force, and as if he was getting ready for the final thrust to the top of the power. The agreement which is unpleasant for Milosevic has to be "absolutely unacceptable" for him, even though he will tactically retreat from such an assessment.

So, the attack on the media could be the continuation of the Radicals’ attempt to take over the political scene, offering Milosevic the liquidation of joint enemies. But, this is a poisoned gift. Seselj would prove to be somebody who has better muscles, sending fearlessly the police to Belgrade editorial offices, while Milosevic’s knees are trembling in front of NATO.

Seselj’s remaining in power is the best test for the readiness for serious dealing with Kosovo. If Milosevic would not be capable to get rid of him and make a deeper democratic turn in Serbia itself, nobody should hope for any kind of stabilization in Kosovo. The agreement with Holbrooke, no matter how he interprets it, understands an attempt to build some kind of Serb - Albanian coexistence. The outlook for that is practically nil, particularly after the explosion of violence in the last six months, so it is perfectly senseless to invest efforts towards that goal while a neofascist is sitting in the Serbian government.


Source: Belgrade weekly "Vreme," October 17, 1998

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