Ejub Stikovac of the independent news pool "AIM," looks at the mood among the voters-exiles from Bosnia, currently living on the territory of FRY, on September 10, 1998.

From a conversation with a few refugees, who want to remain anonymous "until it can be seen whether the national parties are still strong as their leaders state," there are no big expectations. Still, the larger part of them says that any elections after the war represents step in the right direction, at least when the balance of power among political forces in both entities is concerned. At the same time, the majority is of the opinion that they will not be able to return to some parts in the near future and that voting for the multinational parties can hardly change the situation on the ground "due to mighty local nationalists."

I could be said in general that the largest numbers of refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina who have found their haven in FRY, contemplate to gain the passport of this state or to go to third countries. Maybe this is one of the reasons for the forecast that the response of the voters will be smaller than on previous parliamentary elections.

On of current themes, but then just for some of the parties here, is how many votes will their candidates receive in Republika Srpska. It turned out that the strongest rivals are the leaders of SPO Vuk Draskovic and of the Radicals, Vojislav Seselj. Belgrade analysts are of the opinion that it is pure illusion that the SPO can win any substantial number of votes in RS.

The BiH elections have received the usual media attention in the independent and state media, with very strong favoritism in the latter.

What is most worrying for the ruling circles in Belgrade is the possibility that multinational and civic oriented parties receive much more votes than before. This due to the fact that democratization of BiH, in the widest sense of the word, would shake the Serbian ruling elite.


Source: Independent news pool "AIM," September 10, 1998