Montenegro



Marko Vukovic of "AIM" news pool reports from Podgorica on July 21, 1998 on the aspects of the agreement reached between Slobodan Milosevic, and Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic.

The Montenegrin public, particularly the voters of the winning coalition "Let's Live Better" were shocked when they heard a statement during the main daily TV newscast from a Belgrade meeting of three presidents, Milosevic, Djuknovic and Milutinovic, which presented unanimously accepted conclusions concerning the amendments to the FRY constitution, strengthening of the media system through IRT (all-Yugoslav TV) and combat of terrorism in Kosovo through all means necessary. The firs impression of the larger part of the Montenegrin public was the disbelief that its leader Djukanovic accepted to make all those concessions and practically signed capitulation to Milosevic. The coalition partners, DPS, Kilibarda and Rakocevic were also caught by surprise. Both partners of Djukanovic's Democratic Socialist party warned that they will follow the unfolding events closely and that in the case of true realization of mentioned elements, they will leave the coalition.

There was an attempt to quell the negative echo of such an agreement of the Montenegrin president Djukanovic by his counsellor for the constitutional system.

Miodrag Vukovic and press secretary, Bozidar Jaredic, who, in a good old fashion, attempted to persuade widely disappointed followers by saying that the constitutional changes deal more with Serbia than with Montenegro, and that the support for JRT has nothing to do with current JRT, which is more a "JUL than a Yugoslav organization," and that when the Kosovo question is concerned, Montenegro supports a political solution of this problem, with the participation of

OESCE and respect of all civil and national rights, and that mentioning of terrorism is only a casual formulation.

When it turned out though, that such excuses have very little effect, the authorities started to spread information through unofficial channels that nothing will come about from this agreement, and that Djukanovic was only bluffing Milosevic so that he could get a main concession from him - deposing of the federal prime minister Momir Bulatovic. At a press conference, Predrag Drecun, vice president of the National party, a member of the Djukanovic coalition, stated that the Montenegrin president got from Milosevic a promise that Bulatovic will be gone by October, while the position of the prime minister and seven government posts in the Federal cabinet will be awarded to the coalition. This statement was followed by another, from Djukanovic's meeting with the OESCE delegation, that the agreement with Milosevic is on only if Bulatovic is deposed.

Closest to reality would be the statement of the SDP leader Zarko Rakocevic that actually Milosevic is playing a game between Djukanovic and Bulatovic, attempting to create as big a fight between them as possible, weaken them, and in that manner strengthen his position. And that Milosevic's key goal at the moment is to dismantle the Montenegrin coalition "Let's Live Better."

There are indications that he was able already to destabilize the relations between the partners, since they are all reacting differently to this agreement - Djukanovic's DPS is quiet, his media are mainly circumventing this subject, the National party are explaining that Djukanovic has accepted something completely different than what can be seen from the literal wording of the statement, while the SDP fears that this was a first step backwards of the coalition from the better life it promised. Of course, it is hard to believe that the Milosevic - Djukanovic agreement will cause a deeper strife within the coalition - but it could be the beginning of such a process. It is obvious that cunning tricks are yet to crop up, and that it will only take a few months to see who benefited from the agreement. But, it is hard to believe that Milosevic will, even with such big promises given to him by Djukanovic, get rid of Bulatovic and leave such a strong post, as is the one of the federal prime minister to Djukanovic. If he would accept something like that, this would practically mean the beginning of his end. There are interpretations that this would not be a surprise, and that pressured by great and insurmountable problems, Milosevic will accept to leave things to Djukanovic, through him to the international community, under a condition that he remains the ceremonial President of FRY !?

Based on the knowledge of the Yugoslav president so far, it is more probable to expect his attempt to outclass his rival from Podgorica and that he would maybe accept some concessions, even the departure of Bulatovic, but after he would secure his position and power through constitutional changes, and in that respect, make the position of the federal prime minister worthless.

Of course, Djukanovic is not naive either. His situation is much more comfortable and he has no reason to rush with the implementation of the agreement and concessions to Milosevic. All this could lead to a stale mate position, in which the agreement would remain as a dead letter on paper, leaving Milosevic and Djukanovic in position of bitter rivals in which they find themselves for the last 15 months.

Source: "AIM" news pool, July 21, 1998