Croatia

Nijaz Hamza of the Sarajevo weekly Slobodna Bosna looks at the effects of possible introduction of sanctions against Croatia in the May 16, 1998, issue of this magazine.

It is expected of Croatia to prepare a program which would, in a formal and legal way, enable the unhindered return of exiled Serbs so that the joint exile enchanted circle would be broken, and the return of other exiled from this region enabled. On this list are also continuity in the implementation of the Dayton peace agreements , better relations with the neighbors connected with this agreement, which also includes pressure on the proteges in Bosnia and Herzegovina, meaning help in dismantling of Herceg - Bosnia, as a parastate in half a state.

The donation conference on the reconstruction of Podunavlje, announced for the beginning of May has been postponed, at least until September, and it is not certain that it will be held even then. The matter in question is the program of the return of exiled Serbs and Croats, who have exchanged their place of residence during the last few years. Zagreb expected more than a billion dollars for the reconstruction of dwellings and factories, and it says that the whole project could be achieved with five billion dollars. The reason for the postponement of the conference is slowness of Zagreb in writing of the program of return which would suit the United States and EU. In brief, the West is demanding a program of collective return, but Croatia insists on the individual one, which an intelligent bureaucracy could make impossible or prolong it ad infinitum. It is a strong impression that ZAgreb is in no hurry with this program, also because of the estimate that due to economic woes a few more Serbs will leave ruined Podunavlje. So far, quite a number of them left. This is potentially a great problem for all or for a greater number of Croatian citizens.

A few hundred Serbs from Podunavlje left with Croatian passports for Norway this winter, where they requested political asylum for all Croatian citizens. In recent days, as one of the possible punishments for "misbehaving Croatia, introduction of visas for all citizens of Croatia in the EU countries has been mentioned in Brussels.

The second punishment could be leaving Croatia in front of the door of the PHARE program. Nominally, not a large sum of money is involved, but still, it is money, which, if properly invested, could bring larger dividends. On the other hand, PHARE program in itself represents an entry ticket to other projects, membership in its rises the credibility of a state.

Of course, the strongest trump card in the hands of the EU (West) are the so called autonomous trade preferentials used by Croatia, and which, as they say in Brussels, Croatia could lose. This could be a catastrophe for the neighboring state. What is in question is a punishment that could cause a specific chain reaction with hard consequences for the Croatian financial, economic and social system, bringing it to a collapse. This is due to the fact that most of its goods are exported to the EU, and it imports most of them from there; according to some estimates, this represents three fifths of its foreign trade.

It seems that Zagreb is not afraid that the preferentials will be removed, even if it does not bow to the demands from the West. During the recent congress of the HDZ youth, Croatian President Tudjman insisted that Croatia has friend and allies in Europe, and that it is not in the interest of Europe to destabilize a state that represents a factor of stability in the Balkans by introducing sanctions against it. He is probably right when he says that it is not in the interest of Europe to destabilize Croatia, but also, it is also true that it is not in the interest of the West (Europe) that by its behavior, Croatia destabilizes its neighborhood. Or for it to prevent the stabilization of the region.



Source: Sarajevo weekly :Slobodna Bosna, May 16, 1998