Elections in Montenegro


Zeljko Ivanovic of the AIM independent news pool reports from Podgorica on the probable outcome of the Montenegrin parliamentary elections on May 29, 1998, two days before they were held.

All serious polls of the public opinion, as well as the information arriving from the voting regions, as well as the images from all pre - election promotions indicate that the Coalition For A Better Life,", comprised of the ruling DPS, NS (Ntional Prty) and SDP (Social Democrats), which, most importantly for its rating, is lead by the Montenegrin president Milo Djuknovic, is the most serious candidate for winning the parliamentary majority. In the last few days, particularly after the federal Prime Minister Rdoje Kontic was deposed and the illegitimate inauguration of Milosevic's protege Bulatovic as the new one, the rise of this Coallition has been evident, so what seemed quite unrealistic some fifteen days ago, that anybody will be able to gain more than fifty percent majority of seats in the future parliament, now looks quite certain. What also has to be added to the votes of the Coallition are those votes that will be won by two Albanian parties (DVA and DS) , as well as the Bosniak SDA, which are in an informal Coalition with Djukanovic's block.

The second party in strength, Bulatovic's SNP, according to the most optimistic estimates can count upon 30 of all 78 seats in the Montenegrin Parliament. That is a good quotient, but it is also a result which leaves this party outside of all levers of power, which, through time, would influence its fracturing and dissolution. Conscious of this fact, and that these are not ordinary elections but a fight for life, Bulatovic's supporters are attempting to raise tensions in all possible ways and at least guard the image of their previous might. They had a session of the party Main Board three days before the elections, from which they issued an unusual statement saying that they are certain winners of the elections, but if they do not win, the elections are irregular and they will not recognize them !

The most uncertain position is reserved for the third most serious competitor - Liberl Union of Slavko Perovic, who attempted to impose himself by denouncing both Djukanovic and Bulatovic, even though he is by his program much closer the former, which is also seen in the fact that the Montenegrin President covered an important part of Perovic's electoral body. As the tensions between Belgrade and Podgorica rose, the room for the "middle and neutral way" of the Liberals narrowed, so that instead of projected 15 and more percent of the votes, they are going to have to fight for less than 10 percent. But, what is more important for Perovic is whether he will be the decisive weight on the scale, without whom neither of the opposing blocks will not be able to have the majority, and in that respect, not be able to form a government. If the Liberl Union acquires such a position, disregarding the number of votes it will win, its risky independent road will make sense - on the contrary, Perovic could be completely, even maybe forever, politically marginalized.

Appearing at the election polls will also be number of parties of the so called "Serbian orientation," starting with Seselj's Radicals, to former members of Kilibarda's National party, but none of them, compared to Bultovic's SNP, which is "rounding off" this part of the electoral body, have a chance to win enough votes to enter the Parliament. If this happens to any of them, by accident, these would be MP's Bulatovic could count upon as his "family." So, according to realistic estimates two days ahead of the elections, the only unknown factor as far as the result is concerned is whether Djukanovic's coalition "For Better Life", along with partners from the national minority partners, will win more than 50 percent majority in the Montenegrin Parliament, or will they miss at least one vote of the Liberals.

Bulatovic himself is conscious that on May 31, and in difference to presidential elections in October, he has nothing to hope for, and that the victory he is threatening his opponents with is actually a threat with an empty gun. His Belgrade protector, federal President Slobodan Milosevic is also probably aware of this, and for whom the result of the Montenegrin elections has a more important significance than events in Kosovo. Their possible defeat could be a mortal blow, for Bulatovic quite quickly, and in a long term, for Milosevic himself too. It is quite easy that this wave of democratic change from Montenegro will spill into the other Republic, current member of the Federation. It is quite certain that by winning the elections Djukanovic would completely block Milosevic at the federal level. He could not topple him, but he could block him. Such an outcome would probably strengthen the current economic and media war between Podgorica and Belgrade, and there is fear that, similarly as in former Yugoslavia, it could grow into an armed and tragic conflict of the two Republics.

That such fears are founded could be seen in the behavior of Bulatovic and his closest allies, who are getting more and more nervous as My 31 approaches. According to the statements and reactions, more and more they resemble a terrorist rather than a political organization, they are talking more and more about other methods than the ballot box to win power - and these are violent methods, of course. In that respect it is very important how the international factor will act, all of which, from the USA to EU, give full support to President Djukanovic.



Source: AIM media service, May 29, 1998