FRY - SERBI Nenad Lj. Stefanovic of the Belgrade weekly 'Vreme' takes a look at the current situation on the political Scene of Serbia, in the January 24, 1998 issue of this magazine.
The prolongation concerning the formation of the new Serbian government, then the unrealistic list of demands presented by Vuk Draskovic concerning the participation of the SPO in this government, and more and more frequent announcements of some Montenegrin parties that new elections should be held for the Federal parliament, have forced many Socialists to pose this question at the most recent session of the party Main Board: Were not going to new elections, are we? Party secretary Milomir Minic, told his party colleagues not to worry, since the Socialists are done with elections for a while.
According to the plan and program of operation, what awaits the Socialists this year are extremely important elections for the Montenegrin parliament, which are as much important for Milosevic as they are for Bulatovic. Of course, Belgrade will not be pleased if it is Milo who wins against, because this then seriously undermines Milosevics positions on the federal level. That is why SPS will do everything to bring back to their feet shaken Momir Bulatvoic and his still unnamed party, so that they will forget the hard knocks they received recently until May, when parliamentary elections are supposed to be held in Montenegro. At the same time, a new frontal attack can be expected at the DPS of Milica Pejanovic - Djurisic, that is a new media war rabbit and a line of whips through which Milo Djukanovic and his supporters will be subjected in the state controlled media.
The calm in the SPS ranks is being built on the belief that the negotiations with the SPO concerning the formation of the new government will be successful. The fact that Vuk is asking so much - the position of the prime minister + a deputy prime minister + 10 ministerial posts + rearrangement of ambassadorial posts + much more - the Socialists interpret as demands in the function of calming his own party members. The sources in the SPS say that Vuk was told at the beginning of the negotiations that everything is open to discussion except the post of the prime minister and that of the police minister. Much of the things concerning the new government has been, it seems, agreed during the New Years holidays , when the SPO leader shared the same sun rays as the other SPS coalition partner Dusan Mihajlovic, the leader of the New Democracy party.
As far as Montenegro is concerned, the calm of the SPS is based on the internal analyses and estimates that MomirBulatovics party will surely win the elections in May. The Socialists are convinced that Bulatovics party will have between 50 and 60 percent of seats in the future Montenegrin parliament. Since in Montenegro all the power is concentrated in the Parliament, if he loses these elections, Djukanovic would be completely marginalized. In that case, SPS could even accept new federal parliamentary elections, the purpose of which would be political finishing off of Milo Djukanovic.
The victory of the democratic - reformist faction in Montenegro, would, on the other hand, create a completely different political ambient on the federal level and would bring Djukanovic into the position to, for the beginning, form his delegation in the Upper house of the parliament. This, of course, is not enough to bring down the federal government and to threaten Milosevic as the federal president, because for such a decision, the majority of both houses is needed. Legal experts, though, have already put forward the following scenario: to bring down the government all you would need is a disagreement of one house of parliament, which would prevent passing of a certain law for six months.
In that case, the government must fall, and the FRY president has to announce new elections. The Constitution also provides that premature federal elections can come about if this is demanded by either parliament of Serbia or Montenegro. Such a demand must be taken into consideration by the FRY president. It seems though that in those contemplations of the what if type it would be quite easy to imagine in which way, for example, would Slobodan Milosevic take into consideration the possible demand of the Montenegrin parliament to announce new elections. Particularly if Momir Bulatovic would not have the majority in that parliament.
The demand for new federal elections has already gotten unofficial contours on the Montenegrin political scene. Vice president of the Montenegrin government and DPS high official Miodrag Vukovic stated a few days ago that there are serious reasons, both from the legal and political standpoint, to thing about the proposal to hold federal parliamentary elections, along with those in Montenegro.
On the Serbian part of the political scene, the story about new elections for the federal parliament is now mainly forced by Democratic party of Zoran Djindjic. The similar opinion prevails in the GSS, and the Radical party (Seselj) also has nothing against new elections, who are always ready to go to the polls. SPO, as well as the SPS are not ready to give Djindjic the chance to get back into the political game, out of which, they think, he is pushed for long period of time. DSS leader Kostunica is not for the new elections either, because he thinks the whole story is superficial, since the separatist Djukanovic will somehow strike a deal with Milosevic, as soon as he gets a chance.
Source: Belgrade weekly 'Vreme', January 31, 1998