Slobodan Inic, one of the regular commentators of political events in the independent press discusses the current state of Slobodan Milosevic's policies in the January 20, 1998 issue of the Novi Sad weekly 'Nezavisni'.

The process of peaceful transfer of authority to Croatian officials has been concluded in recent days in Eastern Slavonia, which definitely rounded off the integration of the Republic of Croatia according to the so called AVNOJ (prewar borders), which for exactly six years were the reason for a conflict and war with Croatia. The only remaining question to be solved in the territorial conflict with Croatia is the one concerning Prevlaka with Montenegro. According to the criteria so far which the international community had concerning the delineation between former Yugoslav republics, everything indicates that this territorial problem will be solved in accordance with that criteria, that is, in favor of the Republic of Croatia.

In the best case, Prevlaka would, only after it is returned to Croats, be proclaimed as some sort of a de - militarized zone, which does not lessen the size of the defeat of Milosevics conquering cartography, since that from the beginning of the war he was playing the all or nothing game on the territory of former Yugoslavia. As much as this bloody cartography cost the Serbian people in victims, no less will be the expense of regaining conscience that it has lost the territorial strong point which was not its exclusively, but the one on which it has been living and working as on its own, since god knows when.

Milosevics cartographic defeat has continued: by accepting and signing the Dayton agreements when Bosnia and Herzegovina is concerned. With these agreements all of his three greater nationalist plans of conquering this most Yugoslav republic have fallen through.

The first one, that Bosnia ends up, along with Macedonia, in Milosevic's modern federation, the second one that it is to cut it up jointly with Croats and the third one, to tie up Republika Srpska with Serbia, even though it is to remain within the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the Dayton agreements.

Not only that Republika Srpska will not achieve its hope of joining Serbia, but it itself could be divided within two cantons or completely wiped out from the BiH map as a former quasi state entity !

Macedonia which was mentioned in passing had the luck and wisdom not to end up as the victim of greater Serbian aggression in that part of former Yugoslavia. It is an indisputable statesmans wisdom of president Gligorov that he was able to get rid of the troops of the former JNA from the Macedonian territory in a peaceful negotiable manner. Otherwise, nobody knows what could have happened.

But what has defended Macedonia the most is Milosevic getting stuck in the war in Croatia, and particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, so that he did not have the strength to lead another, along with the two already in progress, with same goal and same intentions. Afterwards the Americans came, along with their very clear warning that Macedonia will be defended by all means.

Finally, of all Milosevics greater Serbian ambitions the one that remained was the one connected with his tendency to control Montenegro at least, if he was not able to succeed to do more than he intended. But, with the victory of Milo Djukanovic at the presidential poll has turned even this hope of his sour. Milosevic is now doubly threatened: with the risk that Montenegro will leave the joint state, or that it will remain in it, threatening his personal power with the announced political and economic reforms. All says that Milosevic would rather square the accounts with Montenegro too, peacefully or by force, just so that he could run away from the reform plague as far as possible.

But his running away, as things are turning out, will not end up there. He is still left with room to disintegrate Serbia itself into three, maybe even four parts: inner Serbia from Belgrade to Kraljevo, Kosovo, Vojvodina, and not less probable, Sandzak itself.

He will enter history as the ruler who for no reason and recalcitrantly broke his own country ! Because of his personal power he lost Yugoslavia, and he will achieve Yugoslavia in Serbia!? Again, due to personal power and destructive passion of those that have supported him all these years. And as far as the Serbs themselves are concerned, their position is as follows today: they have lost the lands where they were the constitutive nation, so that, in turn, they could get non-Serb nations as constitutive !

After all, Milosevic is left with the choice what will happen, after all with his rule: the head of the state without territories, president of small Serbia or, even more precisely, president of presidents of small Serbia !?

Source: Novi Sad weekly 'Nezavisni', January 20, 1998