Belgrade daily Nasa Borba brought a comment on the current political situation in FRY by, in its Sunday edition of Februar 8, 1998.

Yugoslavia is facing a critical year: economic collapse in Serbia will cause massive strikes and could turn into public unrest, massive robberies, police intervention, even civil war. In the meantime, Kosovo stale mate can quickly regenerate into general violence. In such circumstances, new bosses in Montenegro could use the first chance to get out of Milosevics paws.

But, the problem lies here not in simple dark description of a possible resolution of a certainly impossible state, political, economic and social situation which is really lasting too long, and which the local power holders would gladly ascribe to a devilish plan made up in numerous conspirative centers around the globe, and whose only goal is to destroy the Serbian nation. The problem lies on the other, or more precisely said, real side, that is the socialist establishment. Domestic creators of chaos, actually do not know where to stop, and more that certainly, they are conscious that as time passes by, some events could, even with the still solid functioning of the mechanism of power, get out of control.

Milosevic regime not only does not have the answers to ever more dangerous degradation of the economic crisis in Kosovo, but, playing a hazardous game with opening another front, instigating a conflict in Montenegro, showed that it has no concept of guarding true state interests. Except, of course, the concept of guarding bare authoritarian power. This playing on everything, even at the expense of war, or nothing, brought Serbia at the bring of disaster: the sanctions still have not been completely lifted, the isolation of the country is still intact, impoverishment and spread of crime within the society have reached alarming proportions, while human dignity and national pride have been completely degraded. The method of brainwashing like blaming domestic traitors, independent media or independent economists are not holding water anymore.

It is exactly the reactions of the type catch the thief or traitor, that speak about the nervousness of the regime. And no matter how absurd it might sound, in some matters the regime will not even be asked. Yugoslavia is surrounded by strong international forces in the neighborhood, so arms rattling in Kosovo or Montenegro will not have a good echo in those diplomatic offices of the world which are, more and more, sending demands to Milosevic to deliver proof in practice concerning the obligations he undertook in Dayton - from co - operation with the Hague Tribunal to establishment of relations with states created in the region of former Yugoslavia. Above all, both questions, as well as the Montenegrin and Kosovo one have been internationalized due to stubbornness of Belgrade not to recognize the presidential election results in that republic and the use of police and repression in general. In that respect too, beating the chest that these are internal matters of our country do not seem very convincing. They are not shaking the internal, let alone the international public.

Milosevic cannot count on the hundred percent success of the tactic of striking a deal with Milo Djukanovic concerning the equality of the smaller federal unit in the federal state without rocking the boat of cleptocratic socialism, so that he could draw advantages from announced foreign investments into the reforms in Podgorica. Belgrade is desperately seeking substantial financial injections, but Djukanovic will be indisputably be tested by the West how transparent and sincere is his reformist course. Strict rules of the international banking institutions are not allowing seeping through fingers, including possible camouflage and covering of somebody elses transition. Podgorica will probably receive strictly restricted loans, the same which happened to the government of Republika Srpska when it announced greater opening towards the West and pushing war mongers from Pale into the background. On the other hand, even if he would be able to profit in some minuscule way from those channels, Milosevic is surely conscious that his pupils have surpassed him, and that they are desperate for money, so that they could retain their power.

Lastly, the competition between socialists and their close political partners, the party of Vuk Draskovic, has an impoverished and hollow sound to it. Is it so important who was the first one to propose a two parliament assembly in Kosovo ? It might be closer to reason that there is an urgency to open a reasonable and argumented dialogue with the Albanians, while all the possible variants of the Kosovo solution presented openly to the public and the parliament. But, no matter what he does, Milosevic is losing. The aura of the leader who has began his ascendancy to power, exactly in Kosovo is diminishing because the subordinates, no matter how faithful they are do not like concessions, connecting them with losers. The current Yugoslav leader has to make concessions sooner or later. That is probably the reason he is postponing the implementation of the agreement which he signed a year ago with Rugova concerning the return of Albanian children to schools. Will he have enough time until then to evade the black scenario a dark conspirational prognosis?

Source: Belgrade daily Nasa Borba, February 8, 1998