BOSNIA

Petar Reljic of the Kragujevac by-weekly 'Nezavisna Svetlost' writes in the December 15-22, issue of this magazine on the relations between Slobodan Milosevic and Biljana Plavsic, after the elections in Republika Srpska.

Even when Robert Frowick and his vote counters officially announce the distribution of seats in the Parliament of Republika Srpska (RS), the real results of the elections will not be known. What will be known is the number of seats won by certain parties, but what will not be known is what this is leading to in the public and political life of RS. It will not be known what is really the fall of the SDS and the forces in the society which this party represents, and it will be even less clear whether these democratic elections are only a stronger foundation for even more frequent and uncompromising conflicts and divisions in the RS.

The mood of the electoral body in RS is really complex. Serbian DEmocratic Party (SDS) - 32,87 percent, Serbian National Alliance Biljana Plavsic (SNS) - 19,87 percent, Serbian Radical Party (SRS) - 19,3, Socialist Prty RS (SP RS) 12,24, plus one percent for the Coallition for a Unified BiH, where the strongest force is Izetbegovic's SDA, plus small parties with two or three MP's, all of which comprise a square of a circle, where again, the main mathematicians that will crop up are Biljana Plavsic and Slobodan Milosevic. It will be interesting to see how they will start everything all over again. A lot has happened since they saw each other last time.

First of all, SNS, the party Ms Plavsic 'patched up' for these elections from the SDS rebels, became, no matter what, the second political force in the RS.It is known that this party is fuelled by heartiness, and it can be easily said, naivety of Biljana Plavsic. Both of these elements were main political assets of Plavsic at the beginning of her political career, but then she was only a player that was 'burning up' in a team under the hawk eyes of a psychiatrist and an economist.

Since her SDS career was a question of a 'brave heart', it ended when Biljana felt tricked.

Her rage coincided with the disappointment of the people, with the wish of people from Banja Luka and Krajina that this city becomes the capital of the Republic and the need of the international community to find among the Serbs somebody, even somebody with not such an impeccable biography.

Even though President Plavsic has created a miracle, this is not enough for her to propose the person who will form the new government who will suit her and be powerful at the same time.

At the same time, the SDS is, along with its (for the moment) natural allies, the Radicals, there on the border to have enough votes in the Parliament for the government which would continue on the path of Gojko Klickovic. But, for this coalition to sit firmly in the Parliament, they would still need some people. The most mentioned is the Socialist Party of the RS, at which the most influence is exerted by Slobodan Milosevic.

The Greek media reported recently on the opinion of the FRY President that something could be possible. But how, since it is known that the RS Socialists were much closer to Biljana, and particularly Bnja Luka, then to Krajisnik and Buha, let alone Pale? Milosevic obviously overcame this contradiction with the statement that through entering the ruling coalition the Socilists, from the position of power, can work from within to disintegrate the nationalistic - isolationistic block.

Staying outside of the coalition, the Socialists risk to remain without a crumb. Wit the SNS they would only reach up to SDS. If they would like to rule (whatever that would mean), they would have to think about an agreement (public or secret) with the Bosniak MP?s (SDA) and Croats (HDZ). Is that possible in RS today ?

So, the SP RS could with a cool head make different combinations. But what is done with a cool head in this country during these times ? There are signs that Milosevic's insistence on the SDS - SRS coalition could lead to the disintegration of the SP RS, even its division. That is why the opposition to the idea from Belgrade could be very strong, and due to its Promethean position, the SP RS is publicly insisting on a government of national unity, or some other above-the-election creation, with which the tricky electoral results could be ironed out.