SERBIA CROATIA -
STRENGTHENING OF ARMY AND POLICE

One of the best informed military analysts in the independent media of FRY, Vladimir Jovnovic, writes on the background of the Yugoslav - Russian military agreement in the Sunday, December 21, 1997, edition of the Belgrade daily 'Nasa Borba'.

The news on the conclusion of a military - economic agreement between FR Yugoslavia and the Russian Federation have created wide interest of the domestic, but also foreign public - particularly the experts. This third agreement in the last three years could be something more that the heart breaking outburst of all - Slavic love. What is being said is that there are very serious interpretations that the Yugoslav Army, as the largest remnant of the JNA, could in a significant manner refill its arsenals, shot and used since 1991.

When the official Moscow recently approved the plan of reduction of its peacetime armed forces, it was clear that large surplus of arms will crop up, for which it might not be possible to find markets in the countries of the so called third world. On the Eastern European markets the Russan arms are being replaced by those of NATO, and the military industry in that region has switched to Western standards. This is the situation everywhere except in FRY, which is still interested for the import of Russian arms and close technological orientation of the domestic military industry towards the East.

Federal Prime Minister Radoje Kontic left for Moscow with a large list of arms which the Yugoslav Army would like to see in its arsenals. The priority is given to anti - armor and anti - aircraft combat systems. The similar priorities are listed in the documents of the Supreme Defence Council, prepared near the end of 1996.

What should have been discussed in Moscow was the possibility of co - operation of two military industries, so that FRY would be aided in serial self - production of anti - armored gun, (100mm caliber), under the official designation 'M91', which is based on the values of older Russian guns 'T-12' and 'MT-12', and howitzer 'D-30'. It turned out that this production would put forth, not only insolvable financial problems, but also of ammunition, after the factory in Novi Travnik has been lost.

The second round on the 'wish list' encompassed the anti - aircraft combat systems, as well as an agreement on the tempo of import of the most advanced helicopters 'Mi-24', known in the West as 'hind'. The orientation towards the modernization of the rocket arms within the Artillery-Rocket Corps of the RV and PVO units of the Yugoslav Army, commanded by colonel Slavko Biga, after the theoretical conclusion that the controversial systems 'dvina', 'neva' and 'kub' ('sam' variants) would be able to decimate the Western fighter - bomber aviation has been departed !

How 'heavy' is this military - economic agreement ' The tax payers, that is, FRY citizens have been denied this information, although the international trade of conventional arms has been for a long time a part of public operation in democratic societies. According to our sources, the cost of the agreement is fluctuating and will depend on the tempo of payments of first shipments which arrive in the FRY. According to same interpretations, the most knowledgeable person into this deal is neither the Prime Minister Radoje Kontic, nor the Minister of Defence Pvle Bulatovic, but Nikola Sainovic, who controls all aspects of Yugoslav export - import deals with Russian Federation in the magic triangle gas - wheat - arms. For a long time, Sainovic is marked as the most serious candidate for the new minister of defence, since he enjoys the trust of the new supreme commander of the FRY armed forces.

Sill, the large investments from the domain of heavy anti - aircraft systems were not agreed in Moscow, even though the price was asked for the 'SA - 10B' and 'SA-12' systems, the Russion version of the American 'Patriot'. Interest was renewed, dating from JNA times, for the Russian ballistic earth - earth rockets 'tocka U' and 'scud', but it only remained at that point. The attention was focused in the rocket protection of mechanized and motorized units in movement from air attacks. The Russians have definitively given the licence for 'arrow - 10', produced in a certain domestic factory under the mark 'S-10MJ2'.

Finally, it seems that the deal is on for the import of a contingent of 'Mi-24' helicopters. According to some opinions, still in play is the acquisition of a modernized version of the 'MIG-29M' plane, in a squadron strength. The RV and PVO command in Zemun did not give up also on the acquisition of Russian means of electronic surveillance, as well as additional equipment, but it seems that 'Suhoi' deal is definitely off.

The agreement signed in Moscow is still open, in the sense that some orders can be replenished, all of which will be transported to FRY by sea to the port of Br, where the YA rented substantial space. The problems might arise when payment comes up, since Russians are showing less and less interest for barter trade and are asking for hard currency or want to give unfavorable credit lines.