The regular military affairs correspondent of the Podgorica weekly Monitor, Vladimir Jovanovic, looks at the role played by the Yugoslav Army in the current political disputes in Montenegro in the August 22, 1997 issue of this magazine.The key question in the Montenegrin crisis is not whether two parties will emerge out of the one in power, nor who will be the presidential candidate in its name, but whether Belgrade has the intention to use a military intervention to regain the control over the Montenegrin republic. The crisis is provoked from Belgrade, who is now confronted with a dilemma which road to take: accept prime minister Djukanovic and his policies as an unpleasant reality, or go into the adventure of violently changing the Montenegrin top and installing the pro Serbian faction of the ruling party ?
From the moment when the Montenegrin political top is polarized, the level of combat readiness within the garrisons in Montenegro have been raised. The units of the Podgorica corps from time to time leave the garrisons in large numbers and place the combat equipment at the heights which dominate the terrain, and retain the tension of an extrordinary situation among the personnel. The planes of the air force make low flights, testing the sustainability of neo cortex activities on the civil population when they keep on breaking the sound barrier. The combat vessels of the Navy have attempted on a number of occasions to introduce the regime of limited sail within the Montenegrin coast, even provoking direct confrontation with the Montenegrin police.
Any a bit more serious politician or general knows that it is simpler and less risky to beat the enemy in the nerves instead in the flesh. The game of nerves of the Yugoslav army with Montenegrin civil population is based on the conclusion that the demonstration of force might be the easier way to break the will for resistance, than its direct use, which has the risk that the population would be stimulated to resist even more.
The elements of ?unacceptability of the risk? of a possible military intervention in Montenegro lie in external and internal reactions to it. Every war, including this propaganda/psychological one which is conducted against Montenegro, always begins with two ?D? ? s - demoralization and disorganization. Demoralization through disinformation was directed towards dispersion of gossip, apathy, defeatism and confusion among the forces who support or would support prime minister Djukanovic.
Disorganization was developed through the attacks on the Montenegrin police as the most important component of stability of Montenegrin security situation.
The key but, on the other hand, occurred when a message was sent that ?whistles won?t work here? /allusion to Serbian winter demonstrations /. This message had strong firepower capability over the headquarters in Belgrade, with a clear allusion to mountain temperament and combat tradition. It was considered as a key burdening factor for a possible night surge on Podgorica with the goal of neutralizing and suspension of governing, legislative - and now it turns out, judicial authority in Montenegro. The reactions would, obviously, be very turbulent, and nobody?'s head would be safe anymore. Montenegro would turn into neuralgic point for the Serb regime and its domestic exponents.
Besides that, Montenegro is a legal state with a constitutional right to decide bout its future, and its quite close to Bosnia, where 60 thousand NATO troops are currently located.
The official Belgrade could hardly convince anybody abroad that it has nothing to do with the possible military intervention in Montenegro, that Serbia is not involved in the war?, and the army is lead by two Bulatovic's.
Source: Podgorica weekly Monitor, August 22, 1997
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