Darko Sukovic of the Podgorica weekly ?Monitor? looks at the current political events in Montenegro, particularly from the aspect of the rift in the Montenegrin political top, in the August 8, 1997, issue of that magazine.After last week?s political ?summit? of the heads of the Montenegrin parliamentarian parties with the presidents of the Government and the Parliament, it is almost certain that the extraordinary presidential and parliamentarian elections in Montenegro will be held separately. Djukanovic has offered the opposition all that has been done a few days earlier by the president Momir Bulatovic. But, it seems that prime minister's goods invoke greater trust than the one with the brand of the President of the Republic, so that in principle, his package of intentions?, which includes, besides the electoral rules, that key difference with Bulatovic's proposal - the holding of the extraordinary elections for the Montenegrin parliament in Spring of next year. The current head of state insisted that the presidential and parliamentary elections are set simultaneously, or with a week or two difference.
This detail, the date of the elections, has unjustly overshadowed the rest of the content of this political deal. This due to the fact that it seems, that after seven years of yearning, the wish of the Montenegrin opposition to forge an orderly electoral race seems to be coming true. The new electoral laws, with Montenegro as one electoral unit and proportional electoral system, fair financing of the parties, as well as their equal treatment in the state media, along with a series of other rules on which the opposition insists, seem to be at reach this time.
The almost overused thesis mentioned in the last few weeks - that, actually the real politics in Montenegro is just beginning - seems to confirm itself with every passing day. All relevant political factors in the Republic, more or less, are abandoning their entrenched positions, and, lead by their own interest, seek grouping similar to them in the quite chaotic political scene of Montenegro. The calculations have reached their peak, since its the key moment to find allies. The time ahead of the first oncoming elections, the presidential ones, to be held on October 5, has to be used to persuade the voters to accept the new schemes, drastically different from those set in November of last year.
It is actually these presidential elections that could give more realistic picture of the balance of power in two strongest parties, more than influence the result of the extraordinary parliamentary elections. (Under the condition that they will be actually held in Spring.) The two confronted chiefs of the DPS party, Milo Djukanovic and Momir Bulatovic, are entering the race for the head of the state as outright favorites. After the decision of the Republican Electoral Commission to verify the prime minister as the presidential candidate of the ruling party, Bulatovic?s positions are additionaly damaged. Article 5 of the Law on the Election of the President, prescribes that one party can nominate only one man. The current head of state , after loosing the logistical support of the state TV (but also of the daily ?Pobjeda? and the state radio) and the police, is also left without the psychologically strong right to have the triumphant acronym DPS behind his name.
It is absurd, but also easily explainable why the other candidates for the President of the Republic will not suffer the burden of the front - runner at the moment when Bultovic and Djukanovic are thoroughly accusing each other, at the same time degrading their current positions within the regime and in hears of the voters. It was actually Dr. Novak Kilibarda, one of those who could, comparing party strength and leadership charisma, be a serious counter - candidate, who offered a good explanation of this ?strange? logic. The Montenegrin scene has been so polarized during the recent months, that it is quite realistic to assume that the gaze of the voters will be directed (almost) entirely towards Milo and Momir, skipping the others.
So far, the only one against the results of the recent dialogue of the opposition and the ?new? DPS top is the leader of the LSCG (the Liberals), Slavko Perovic. He is not hiding the fact that he prefers Bulatovic?s offer, by which both elections would be held at the same time. The president of the Liberal Alliance bases his arguments on the fear if he becomes the President, Milo Djuknovic would use the time available until the Spring to completely consolidate DPS. After that, from the angle of the ruling party the extraordinary elections for the Montenegrin parliament would become sheer stupidity. That is why Perovic believes that it is smarter, using the help of the MP?s loyal to Momir Bulatovic, to topple the government of Milo Djukanovic, and urgently, along with ?democrtic and fir? conditions which the President has been lavishly promising, organize the extraordinary parliamentarian elections.
It is not hard to notice that such reasoning of Perovic suits Momir Bulatovic and his ?FRY without an alternative? option, garnered with the acceptance of the change of the Federal Constitution, and then, further weakening of the Montenegrin position in the Federation.
Experience has shown that the thesis that it is necessary to reach the bottom so that the vistas would open does not hold up well. On the contrary, the deeper the crisis was in these regions, the radical ideas have been gaining more supporters. Due to this, it would be completely crazy to expect that in a situation where Montenegro would be reduced to region, its citizens would develop a nostalgia for the lost statehood. Simply, it will be late then and no infusion will not revive the deceased.
It is also the impression that the fear of the possibility that Djukanovic?s faction would keep the absolute power through a brutal political sham is not very realistic. Mostly due to the fact that the two of them (absolute power and Djukanovic?s faction) could not hold for long even with the use of worst dictatorship. As it also does not seem quite possible that in the Spring, with the proposed electoral conditions, DPS could be close to 50 % of the votes.
In any case, it is hard to discern the reasons why the leader of the LSCG has less faith to accept the had of co-operation from Milo Djukanovic, than Momir Bulatovic. In the first combination, it is almost certain that his party will have the chance to effectively control the power after the extraordinary elections, or even take part in it. In the situation of co-operation with Bulatovic, it is not even certain that Perovic would even hold on to his parliamentarian seat for long.
Source: Podgorica weekly Monitor, August 8, 1997
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