Dragan Janjic of the Beta news agency, writes on the recent tour of Richard Holbrooke in the Balkans in the August 15, 1997 issue of the Podgorica weekly ?Monitor?.Practically immediately after Holbrooke and Gelbard finished their press conference and left the region, the speculations began about the real accomplishments of their visit. The observers in Belgrade are not inclined to accept without reservations the assessment that the American delegation, simply did not succeed. That is why it is believed that during the visit of the American delegtion with Milosevic and Krajisnik some results that were not made public were achieved.
Most mentioned in Belgrade is the possibility that, simply, Holbrooke left more time to his two interlocutors to undertake more decisive steps against Kardzic. If this is true, the conciliatory stance he and Gelbard showed after the meeting leads to the conclusion that Milosevic and Krajisnik really promised him something more concrete? when Karadzic is in question.Otherwise, they would either make a sharp threat with new measures towards the Serb side, or at least show their anger. The fact is, also, that the American guests spoke in conciliatory tone about Milosevic. After the fall he suffered during months long protests in Serbia last winter, he is again accepted as a very important factor in the process of solving the Bosnian crisis. Holbrooke confirmed that financial aid of Washington to Belgrade was one of the subjects of the conversation, and he did not reject the possibility that this aid would start arriving if Milosevic begins to fully implement the Dayton agreement. Milosevic was praised for a ?constructive role? during the conversation with Krajisnik.
The conviction that the Belgrade meeting produced more than what has been made public is also expressed by the observers in Pale and particularly in Banja Luka. They particularly indicate the fact that the international forces initiated a strict control of special police units which are, among other things, responsible for guarding Radovan Karadzic. Milosevic and Krajisnik did not directly promise Holbrooke Karadzic?s head, but have practically agreed with the measures undertaken against the special police units. It is clear that in this manner they re weakening Karadzics protection, and that they are practically preparing the terrain for his rrest or liquidation, as one source close to the ruling SDS party in Banja Luka said.
The source in Banja Luka, but also other sources in Republika Srpska also think that bringing Karadzic in front of the Hague Tribunal is hardly plausible at this moment. ?It is certain that in ruling circles in Republika Srpska , as well as in Belgrade, there is an understood agreement that Karadzic cnnot reach the Hague alive. He is not only the accused, but also a dangerous witness who could damage many, from police and military officers, to politicians in Republika Srpska and FRY ?, says a source in Bijeljina, close to the faction of the RS president Biljana Plavsic.
The most important result of Holbrooke's and Gelbard?s tour could then be the narrowing of the space around Karadzic and ?softening? of the stance of Pale and Belgrade towards his delivery to the Hague. If the special police forces are really put under full control, an action of ?limited scope? with a goal of arresting Karadzic would become possible, without risk that a large number of soldiers from the international forces would get killed. This does not exclude the possibility that Karadzic himself would become a victim during such an action.
The central point of the whole game which is currently played around Pale is, of course, president Milosevic. There is a general belief in Belgrade that Holbrooke?s mission came at a very important moment for him, and that it has strengthened his shaken positions. The maker of the Dayton agreement has again promoted Milosevic as a ?factor of peace?, this time at his post as the president of Yugoslavia. Consciously or not, Holbrooke even helped the intentions of the Yugoslav president to hold to power and to ensure the victory of the Socialist Party of Serbia in the forthcoming elections. Actully, he came to Belgrade at a time when the opposition was about to decide about the conditions to enter the elections, which it currently holds as unfair, or to boycott them. With his statement that ? the boycott is a stupidity ?, he in essence helped Milosevic to drag into an already set trap a substantial part of the opposition.
It is also important to have in mind the fact Milosevic was ?allowed? to choose the partner for the talks on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Of course, he chose Krajisnik. To weaken the rising influence of president Plavsic in the international community, inevitably, he and Krajisnik had to offer more to the international community than Plavsic. Whether this is the delivery of Karadzic or something else, will become apparent very soon.
The mandate of the RS president, which gives the post extraordinary powers, lasts until the September of next year. Even if her faction loses the forthcoming parliamenatry elections, obviously Plavsic will remain at her post. This fact in itself is forcing Krajisnik and Milosevic to fulfill all that they have agreed upon by Dayton agreement. With Milosevic and Krajisnik in one hand, and Plavsic in the other, Holbrooke can hardly miss Karadzic.
Source: Podgorica weekly Monitor,
August 15, 1997
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