MONTENEGRO -
POLITICAL CONFLICTS AND ELECTIONS
The general overview of the current political situation in Montenegro is presented by the Belgrade news agency BETA in its weekly English language review.
The fierce conflicts within the ruling Montenegrin Democratic Party of Socialists, which have been seriously shaking Montenegro throughout the summer, were followed by a constitutional crisis, which placed additional strain on the Belgrade-Podgorica relations. The constitutional crisis resulted from the Montenegrin Constitutional Court's decision of August 14 cancelling the candidacy of Momir Bulatovic for Montenegro's president in the pending elections, and from the subsequent staying of this decision by the Federal Constitutional Court of August 27.On September 10, after a public debate on the issue in Belgrade, the Federal Constitutional Court declared as unconstitutional the article of the Montenegrin Law on the Election of President, which stipulates that one party can come forth with only one presidential nominee. At the same time, the court rejected the incumbent president, Momir Bulatovic's appeal against the Montenegrin Electoral Commission's decision to reject his candidacy. After a marathon session, the court decision still leaves much room for different interpretations, so that Belgrade can continue with its pressure upon Montenegro.
Both Belgrade-backed Bulatovic and premier Milo Djukanovic, who is in conflict with Belgrade, will be the candidates in the presidential elections in Montenegro, scheduled for October 5. The constitutional dispute is a result of the rift in the ruling party of Montenegro, once fully loyal to Slobodan Milosevic, which has split into two mutually opposed wings bearing the same name: one headed by Bulatovic and the other by Djukanovic. The dispute finally became a subject of a marathon session of the legislature in Podgorica, in which two-thirds of MPs gave support to Djukanovic's proposal to reject the Federal Constitutional Court's arbitration in the matter. The parliamentary debate and the whole dispute have resulted in the unification of Djukanovic and of the largely nationally-oriented opposition. They responded by demonstrating joint opposition to Belgrade's attempts toward "the unitary FRY."
The decision of the MPs has dramatically deepened the constitutional crisis, which was prompted by such actions as were immediately labelled in Montenegro the interference of the Federal Constitutional Court into Montenegro's internal legal system. The MPs who gave their votes for Djukanovic's proposal belong to six different parties, and had quite different motives to act in such way.
The marathon legislature session has opened a new chapter in the story on the political scene in this republic. Though presidential elections are scheduled for October 5, and parliamentary elections are to be held in the spring of 1998, the political scene in the smaller of the two Yugoslav federal republics has already experienced huge, almost tectonic changes. The rift in the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists marked the beginning of a thorough restructuring of the Montenegrin political scene.
The split in the ruling party forced Djukanovic's wing to rely on the opposition in composing the cabinet. Thus, for the first time since the introduction of the multi-party system in Montenegro, the minority cabinet is in power. The strongest political group in the legislature, the Socialist party supporters represented by Milica Pejanovic-Djurisic, Milo Djukanovic and Svetozar Marovic, has only 28 seats. This fact had forced them - for the first time in eight years - to try to survive by cooperating with those whom they, until recently, used to call the "hostile" opposition. In an attempt to create an anti-Milosevic front in Montenegro, premier Djukanovic and his party comrades initiated the signing of an agreement with the six strongest parliamentary parties. This political alliance, assessed by many in Podgorica as a historical treaty between the government and the opposition, has created an entirely different political climate. The other socialist wing, headed by President Bulatovic, strongly denounced in the legislature the new coalition bloc. Stressing that nowhere in this agreement the name of the federal state is mentioned, Bulatovic said that this "dangerous action was aimed against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia." Zoran Zizic, deputy speaker of the Montenegrin legislature and Bulatovic's supporter, claimed that the agreement between the cabinet and the opposition "may serve as an initial step in Montenegro's secession." Such strong wording does not appear as meant only to serve Bulatovic's presidential campaign nor seems to be owed solely to his fear that Djukanovic may draw a lot of opposition votes, which makes the premier a favorite in the pending polls. It is obvious that Bulatovic and Djukanovic already personify two different political concepts, over which in the days and months to come, a fierce struggle with uncertain outcome will be waged. It is generally held that the presidential campaign and the elections will only serve as a prelude to a true polarization in Montenegro, which is to culminate at the end of next May, when the early parliamentary elections are expected to be held. Federation
By insisting that Yugoslavia "has no alternative," by presenting himself as a "guardian of the federal state," by accusing Djukanovic of being responsible for the criminal and corrupt attitude of the executive power, and by skillfully spicing all the above with accusations that Djukanovic harbors "separatism," Bulatovic is gradually preparing his position for a final showdown which should take place next spring. At the same time, Bulatovic gradually undermines all the institutions of the Montenegrin government: since he has no foothold in any of them, he deliberately works on discrediting them, by suggesting - both directly and indirectly - that the executive power functions only as the "service for Djukanovic's personal political marketing."
During the vote on the Federal Constitutional Court's action, 46 MPs were in favor of sending a letter of rejection to the court, but 16 were against such a move. This figures show that Bulatovic's group is losing ground in the legislature. Related to this is the question of whether such a balance of power exists also among the voters. It is hard to give any reliable answer to this question. According to a recent poll taken by the Belgrade-based Partner Agency, Djukanovic leads over Bulatovic with only a 12 percent margin. According to the Podgorica-based Damar agency this margin hardly reaches seven percent.
Owing to these findings, Djukanovic's team can hardly have restful dreams: Bulatovic leads in Pljevlja (by a 20 percent margin) and in Berane (by a 12 percent margin), while it's a tie in Bijelo Polje. Djukanovic leads in Podgorica (by a 9 percent margin, while in the city center the margin reaches 35 percent), in Kotor, Budva, and Bar. The situation is uncertain in Niksic, the city in which Djukanovic allegedly leads by a several percent margin, and the city which turned an unpleasant surprise for the Montenegrin prime minister.
True, in Djukanovic's headquarters stress that the opinion polls were taken at the time when the signing of the agreement with the opposition was only under way, and that much more favorable results should be expected on October 5. Furthermore, the Montenegrin prime minister's collaborators have only recently started a true and intensive campaign, twenty or some days later than the enterprising Bulatovic. Mihajlo Banjevic, one of the leading Djukanovic's loyalists, claims that according to information available to Djukanovic's team, the Montenegrin premier will easily defeat the incumbent president. In addition, it is certain that following the presidential elections, Djukanovic will insist on a multi-party cabinet in order to strengthen his good relations with the opposition.
But, even if defeated in presidential elections (unless his defeat proves disastrous), Bulatovic may still be content: he would have managed to prepare a solid basis for a showdown in the second round, which is to follow next May.
Furthermore, Bulatovic will remain in his present position until the end of the year (he should leave office on December 31 at the latest), and as the president he may well count on the media coverage. He is certain to receive financial and media assistance from Belgrade. According to some information, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, Bulatovic's main protector, is expected to come to Montenegro to popularize his protege's faction. It is rumored in Podgorica that his visit will take place sometime before the end of September, and that his exclusive host would be - Bulatovic alone.
Source: Belgrade news agency BETA weekly English language review;
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