SERBIA -
PRESIDENTIAL AND LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS
In its latest weekly English language review, the Belgrade based BETA news agency, gives detailed preview of the forthcoming elections in Serbia.
On Sep. 5, the Serbian electoral commission compiled the definite list of seventeen candidates of political parties and citizens' groups for the presidential election in Serbia. More than 10,000 signatures, the number needed for nomination, were compiled by the candidates of the leading political parties and groups running candidates in the election, as well as by several candidates little known among the public.
The household names include Zoran Lilic (Left coalition parties); Vuk Draskovic (Serbian Renewal Movement); Vojislav Seselj (Serb Radical party) ; as well as former members of the ruling establishment such as Belgrade's x-mayor Nebojsa Covic (Democratic Alternative); and x-general and spokesman of the former Yugoslav People's army Vuk Obradovic (Social-Democracy). The other presidential candidates are: Mile Isakov (Vojvodina Coalition) ; Milan Paroski (People's party); Sulejman Ugljanin (List for Sandzak); Milan Mladenovic (Renaissance Coalition); Milisav Bankovic (Yugoslav Workers party); Predrag Vuletic (Liberal-Democratic party); Dragan Djordjevic (Serbian Citizens party); Radomir Tukmanovic (Progressive party); and Branko Cicic (Natural Law party). Candidates nominated by citizens' groups are Miodrag Vidojkovic, Djordje Drljacic and Gvozden Sakic.
The Left coalition parties will do everything for their presidential candidate, Zoran Lilic, who held the office of federal president for the past four years, to win in the first round, as a second high risk round of the presidential election would pit him against either Draskovic or Seselj. The Left coalition has a very stable electorate ranging from 1.3 million voters, who voted for the ruling Socialists in 1992, to as high as 1.6 million voters, who cast their ballots for them in the previous election. At least 1.8 million votes will be needed to win the presidential office if just over 50 percent of Serbia's 7.2 million voters cast ballots.
BETA's sources within the Democratic party, which is boycotting the election, say that the fear of a second round of presidential elections felt by the Left coalition is realistic. Namely, those sources say that the parties boycotting the election will call on their sympathizers to cast their ballots for Serb Renewal Movement leader Vuk Draskovic, should he make it to the final round of the run-off for Serbia's president against the Left coalition candidate. Besides the Democrats, the two other parties in the Serbian legislature are boycotting the elections: the Democratic Party of Serbia and the Civic Alliance of Serbia, as well as twelve smaller parties that do not have members in the legislature.
Belgrade-based elections expert Vladimir Goati expressed his belief that a hidden agenda of the Socialist Party of Serbia could be that no one should be elected Serbian president. The Belgrade daily Gradjanin on Sep. 9, quoted Goati as saying, that "it is almost inevitable" the necessary 50 percent of the electorate will not cast ballots in either the first or the second round of the September election. Such a scenario would leave the Serbian legislature speaker as acting president of Serbia.
Such a stand by the regime is, "the result of fear that any figure in that office, regardless of how loyal he has been so far to the leader (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia President Slobodan Milosevic), could endanger the Socialist leader," believes Goati. The Serbian constitution specifies that at least 50 percent plus one person of the total electorate must vote in the presidential election, while no limits are set for the legislative elections. If less than the fifty percent plus one voter turn out, then the election must be called again.
According to the law governing the election of legislature members, citizens in Serbia's 29 voting districts elect by secret ballot a total of 250 members of the National legislature for a term of four years. The law says that candidates for the legislature may be nominated by registered political parties and other political organizations. Electoral commissions in all 29 election units must publicize all lists of candidates by political parties and citizens' groups, no later than Sep. 11. It is expected that only the Left coalition, the Serb Renewal Movement and Serb Radical party will run as lists of candidates in all electoral units.
Even though the ruling party claims that the higher number of voting districts, increased from nine to twenty-nine, will not jeopardize the proportional election system, objectively, this is almost a majority voting system, used in Serbia only during the first multi-party elections in 1990. For that election, Serbia had been divided into 250 election units, the same as the number of seats in the legislature.
Analyses of the media presentation of political parties, carried out by the BETA agency in conjunction with the European Media institute, and independently by the Human Rights fund, indicate that state television devotes two-thirds of news casts to the campaign of the Left coalition, activities of state officials, who advocate for the Socialist Party of Serbia, Yugoslav Left and New Democracy.
Parties boycotting the elections, including the Democratic party, Democratic Party of Serbia, and Civic Alliance of Serbia, which had members in the legislature during the current sitting, are very much present in the independent media. Half of its air-time devoted to the elections, Studio B has set aside for parties boycotting the elections. Also, the Nasa Borba daily has devoted much of its election coverage to the parties boycotting the elections.
Parties boycotting the elections explain their actions by saying their decision was due to unbalanced election conditions, amendments to the election law made at the last moment without consulting the opposition, as well as the late deployment of observers by the OSCE in Serbia. They also cite the OSCE report by the Philippe Gonzales commission, which last winter, during the popular protests throughout Serbia, uncovered fraud at the local elections and asked the Belgrade regime to create fair conditions for the upcoming elections.
The head of the observers mission for the Serbian elections, anthony Welch, announced for BETA on Sep. 6, that "it is not up to the European observers to assess the boycott by certain parties," but rather, "to simply recognize the fact." However, should the boycott "upset" the election process, if less than 51 percent of the electorate turns out, "we will make a comment about that," Welch said.
The elections in Serbia will be observed by 200 OSCE representatives, who will work in several groups. Welch has announced that a group of 40 observers will monitor the entire election process, including the second round of presidential elections, should it take place, while 150 observers will arrive in Serbia on Sep. 18, and that the majority of them will remain in Serbia until Sep. 24.
Should a second round of Serbian presidential elections take place, it will be held on Oct. 5, the same day as the presidential election in Montenegro.
International standards for observing elections envisage the arrival of observers at least six weeks before the day of the election, to enable them to observe the entire election campaign. The OSCE observers will arrive in Serbia much later, primarily because of the late invitation sent to the OSCE by the Serbian legislature speaker Dragan Tomic.
Source: Belgrade news agency BETA English language weekly review;
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