Independent Belgrade news agency BETA, brought in its most recent weekly English language report the following overview on the conflict in Republika Srpska
The Bosnian Serb leadership from Pale, headed by Momcilo Krajisnik, experienced on September 8 the biggest defeat and humiliation so far in its clash with the supporters of Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic. The huge rally of the ruling Serb Democratic Party, scheduled for that day by Pale with the intent of making it a turning point in regaining its influence in the western part of Republika Srpska, ended as a complete fiasco, leaving Krajisnik and his supporters weakened before Plavsic and representatives of the international community which support her.The new authorities which President Plavsic has been building for months in Banjaluka, demonstrated their capability - though with SFOR's assistance - to retain control in the western part of Republika Srpska, to prevent the radical supporters of the Pale faction from entering the city, and to avoid major incidents. The Banjaluka police proved successful in holding the ckeck points in a broad region between Banjaluka and Prnjavor, a city some 50 kilometers to the west of Banjaluka. It was the first large and successful action in which the police affirmed themselves as an organized force.
There were no mass riots during the Banjaluka rally, but at one point a "direct contact" between the Banjaluka policemen and a group of armed men occurred, probably the members of RS police loyal to Pale. One policeman was injured, but his life is not in danger. On the next day, September 9, Hotel Bosna, where the Pale leadership took refuge, was blocked by Plavsic's police. The Pale representatives where afterward forced to leave the hotel, but not before all their men were disarmed, and head for Pale in SFOR transporters, abandoning their luxurious cars in Banjaluka. Krajisnik and his party used the hotel's back door, accompanied by insults and pelted by eggs. The delegation from Pale was led by RS member of the Bosnian presidency, Momcilo Krajisnik. In it were also speaker of the RS legislature Dragan Kalinic, premier Gojko Klickovic, and deputy premier Dragan Kijac. Their attempt to organize a mass rally in Banjaluka failed despite the organized bussing of their supporters to the city. Only some 1,000 Pale supporters gathered in Banjaluka, but this sufficed to create tensions between the backers of the two opposed groups.
Pale expected a stronger support of Belgrade for the Banjaluka rally, but this support appears to have been withheld. Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, who backs Pale, is not ready to go all the way and seems to have been disinclined to run any risks. There were even some unconfirmed speculations by the Belgrade media that he had prevented the departure of a Serbian Radical Party activists' group for Banjaluka. It is certain, however, that Pale expected a mass arrival of Radicals from Serbia, and that it did not take place.
It seems that the Pale leadership was not unanimous in regard to the need for organizing the rally in Banjaluka. The RS minister of foreign affairs and deputy premier, Alksa Buha, was conspicuously absent, though he was announced as one of the speakers at the rally. Well-informed sources in Banjaluka and Pale say that Buha has not changed his earlier convictions and does not intend to side with Plavsic. Therefore, he has obviously concluded that the idea on the Banjaluka rally was not so good.
At the time when the hotel in Banjaluka was under blockade, Buha and other deputy premier Velibor Ostojic held a press conference in Pale at which they announced the boycott of the local elections scheduled for September 13 and 14. The boycott of local polls was, practically, the only possibility left to Pale in its attempt to preserve legitimacy of its power. It turned, however, that Buha's and Ostojic's statements were but a mere propaganda. The Pale top leaders were once again forced to retreat. Following strong pressures by Belgrade and the international community, on September 10, the RS legislature decided in favor of participating in local elections. On the same day, High Representative to Bosnia-Herzegovina Carlos Westendorp, his deputy Jacques Klein and Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic met in Belgrade. Krajisnik was urgently summoned to the Yugoslav capital, and was on several instances in contact with Milosevic. The decision by the Pale legislature, accepting the participation in the Bosnian local polls, is a practical result of these consultations.
The decision of the ruling party of the Bosnian Croats - the Croatian Democratic Union - to boycott the Bosnian local polls seemed, at one point, to have worked in favor of Pale's intent to adopt a similar approach. The presidency of this party announced on September 9 it will not participate in the elections and called its members and sympathizers to boycott the polls as unjust. In essence, both the Bosnian Croat and the Bosnian Serb ruling parties wish to preserve their ethnically cleansed territories and prevent members of other ethnic groups to have any influence in local affairs. In this, the Serb Democratic Party and the Croatian Democratic Union act as allies.
Informal leader of the Pale faction and a person highly trusted by former RS president Radovan Karadzic, Momcilo Krajisnik, came to Banjaluka on September 8 with the intention to finally remove President Plavsic from power or, at least, to force her, under the pressure of the mass of his supporters, to make significant concessions. On September 8 he spent four hours talking to Plavsic, in the presence of the Serbian Orthodox Church Patriarch Pavle. No progress was made during these negotiations.
Pale refuses to accept Plavsic's demand for holding early parliamentary elections in RS next October. On her part, Plavsic refuses to accept Pale's demand to hold simultaneous presidential elections. The idea on the simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections was launched by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who wishes to get rid of Plavsic because unlike Krajisnik, she refuses to obey his orders.
Krajisnik also rejected Plavsic's demand to alter the editorial concept of the RS state-run television and radio so that the Pale studio and the Banjaluka studio, controlled by Plavsic, broadcast their respective programs on alternate days.
Earlier, the management of the Serb Radio and Television in Pale rejected a demand by the SFOR command to be granted a 90-minutes show in which to explain the role they had played in the RS crisis. For krajisnik and Karadzic, to lose control over the media is to lose power.
According to reports from the ground, despite strong media campaign the Pale leadership had managed to mobilize only several thousand supporters from RS for the planned rally in Banjaluka. Obviously, the population is fed up with the war and political conflicts. This is why the decrease of the propaganda pressure from Pale, accompanied with the broadcasts of different information and different political ideas could seriously jeopardize Pale's position.
In the coming days, President Plavsic will probably continue to peacefully harvest the results of the recent events in Banjaluka. She and her collaborators have demonstrated to their supporters in this city and in the western part of Republika Srpska that they have enough strength to fend-off the strongest pressures of their opponents. Krajisnik and the majority of Pale officials cannot even think of going once again to the areas to the west of Brcko.
It is to be expected that - encouraged by its success of September 8 and 9, and within the preparations for local elections - Banjaluka will continue to spread its influence in the cities in the north of Republika Srpska and that it will attempt once again to place it under its control. Certainly, President Plavsic is well-aware that she cold have done nothing without SFOR's and international community's support. She sees her chance and the chance for the survival of Republika Srpska in strengthening her ties with the world, and primarily with the U.S. Willing to demonstrate her definite and unreserved acceptance of the Dayton Accords, last week Plavsic even asked for the NATO-run Equip and Train Program, which is applied in the army of Bosnia-Herzegovina Federation, to be introduced in the Republika Srpska's army as well.
It is a political concept which essentially differs from the Pale's approach. While Pale still sees the RS future in the unification with Serbia and in the division of Bosnia and Herzegovina between Serbia and Croatia, Plavsic is searching a resolution for Republika Srpska within a unified Bosnia and in accordance with the Dayton agreement, that is, in a closer cooperation with the world.
Source: Belgrade news agency BETA weekly English language
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