LOCAL ELECTIONS IN BOSNIA
Drazena Peranic writes in the May 22, 1997, issue of the Sarajevo weekly Svijet about the prospects of the forthcoming local elections in Bosnia.
The forthcoming local elections are threatening to disrupt the idyllic picture created so far about the synchronized operation of the SDS-HDZ-SDA coalition, as well as perfect non - functioning of the state, and functioning of the party motors. In difference to general elections, during the local ones the authorities will have confirm themselves on the terrain, that is, municipality by municipality, has to be taken over, and with the people that are quite well known to the voters there. In this respect, the aura of party membership can prove itself to be to flimsy a frame for the current local sheriffs around Bosnia and Herzegovina to hold to power. So, the untouchable party clans have to prove themselves on the ground this time, which in the BiH terms means, Brcko, Banja Luka, Stolac, Vares, Capljina, Bugojno, Drvar, Grahovo, Srebrenica, Eastern Bosnia, Posavina... So, here are the partners ahead of a dilemma. How to prepare the lists for municipalities from on which somebody gave up on a long time ago, and how to decide where the voters are actually more needed to for some parties. In other words, the ferociousness of the forthcoming elections will be reflected in the logic here we are, where we are, and well deal with the opposition at home, while on the other well go with the voters into the neighbors den, and see what awaits us there.
In accordance with the established bar room relations of these shores, the SDA and HDZ have quickly reached and understanding concerning the trueoption with which they will go into the elections. Calling for help the never forgotten Karadjordjevo concept, the most recent dense series of meetings of the top ranks of these parties can be reduced to only one thing - an agreement about the non entrance into others regions, with which the partnership will be guarded, while the dream of ethnically pure regions and division of Bosnia confirmed one more time. To the purpose of this big deal, supposedly the SDS has to give upon any thought of return of the Serbs to Drvar, Glamoc or Grahovo, which will not cause any great concern among the Pale leadership as a favor to be done to the HDZ - it can even represent pleasure to them. They already had enough of some coalition for the return - of refugees which are screaming that they want to go back home and the treasonous opposition which is announcing their appearance at the polls in the municipalities of the other state. HDZ will, of course, keep quiet about the 180 thousand Posavina Croats and will forget how their representative in Dayton almost lost consciousness when he saw the entity delineation maps and the whole of Posavina in Republika Srpska. The somewhat better position that will be enjoyed by the remaining Banjaluka Croats and Catholic church there, are additional help of the SDS to HDZ amnesia. Of course, the HDZ is expected not to make too many pacts with its federal partner, SDA, particularly concerning the Brcko question.
Opting for only one electoral option turned out to be impossible exactly for SDA. This even more so, since this party - still chained with its declaratory support for the unified and multi, multi BiH - is most interested for the bordering regions under its influence and those of the other two parties in power. All the vegetable market logic of the coalition swaps, no matter that human beings are in question, will be most transparent in the case of Brcko. SDA is, of course, absolutely interested to enter Brcko municipality institutions, even more so, because the results of the local elections will to a great extent determine the results of the fate of this city after Farands mandate runs out. But, without the support of the HDZ, even with a part of the opposition that would be bought, and which is counted upon, hardly anything could be done in a city where 18, 000 Serbs lived before the war, where as much as 55,000 of them voted in the elections there last year, and with the famous clause bout the exception during the elections in new municipalities of residence, SDS is able, if necessary to double that number. On the other side, giving up on the elections in Brcko, will bring Izetbegovics party into a position where it would have to publicly explain that this strategically important city, even for a possible Bosniak state, has been put ad acta, together with Srebrenica, Foca, Visegrad, Bnja Luka, or some Hercegovina municipalities, considering current HDZ domination there. So, after Pale and Banja Luka negotiations, forthcoming negotiations between SDA and HDZ federal partners could be expected, all with the goal of creating a better offer, than the previous one.
Objectively, it is exactly the SDA part of the tri-partite coalition which has been most pressed by the opposition at home. HDZ can announce loudly and proudly that there is no alternative in its yard, while the SDS opposition is either too weak, or too tied to the Belgrade duo Milosevic - Markovic. In recent times, the SDA has also been pressured by the international community, which is moving from previous black - white extreme image of the war into another.
So, the decision to openly suggest to the voters to vote in the municipalities where they lived before the war would, on one side, mean an open conflict within the tri - partite coalition in power, due to an unexpected intrusion into their back yard, but also the diffusion of the electoral body on the other, which is now ideally concentrated in the BiH municipalities, in which (except, maybe Tuzla) there is not a single one where the number of the so called minority nation exceeds 10 percent. Due to this, all three parties are forced to guard their voters in a similar manner. There is no contention that, with the Pale view of Dayton as a transitional stage towards the division of BiH, Bosnian Serbs will be publicly forced to vote within Republika Srpska. But, the votes of former inhabitants of Srebrenica, Foca, or other ex- inhabitants of Eastern Bosnia, as well as resettled people from Mostar Stoc, or Capljina, will be needed by Izetbegovics party much more in Sarajevo, Tuzla, and even Gorazde, rather than in the cities from which these mentioned Bosniaks were expelled from. What is now available to Posavina Croats, or those from Bugojno, Jablanica, and even Sarajevo, are now secure stones of Western Hercegovina, or already mentioned Drvar, Glamoc and Grahovo.
Of course, even this newest swap which is awaiting us in September, would not be possible without a little help from (international) friends. With all the cries of the OESCE that it will overcome the mistakes from last years elections during the local ones - where these previous one resulted in such fraud, according to which BiH today has more inhabitants than before the war - legalization of ethnic cleansing, or humane resettlement, the term the regimes use to name trade with people, is still the base around the elections are turning. The incriminated form P-2 is today called the possibility of electoral voting exception in new municipalities of residence, and it seems that this exception will be used by around 90 percent of the electoral body ! The basic electoral right will fill, in that manner, to some 10 percent of Bosnias citizens. This truly unique occurrence concerning an exception that ate the rule, OESCe, whose confusion is ever growing, cannot logically explain.
back to index
Monitor Index | War Zone | MediaFilter