KOSOVO - CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
Blerim Shala looks at the current situation in Kosovo in the June 1997, issue of the Sarajevo monthly Dani .
Aware of the fact that the Albanian national question is particularly complex and that it can easily become the initial spark for new Balkan explosions, the Americans have constantly exerted influence during the last five years on the political events in the Balkan South. Washington gave a sign to Milosevic as far back as 1992, that it will not tolerate military operations and ethnic cleansing of Kosovo. At the same time, the Albanians in Yugoslavia were told not to think of any kind of resistance except the non violent one, while Tirana and Pristina were being convinced that Skopje is to deal with the Albanian questions in Macedonia. To secure peace in the region, surrounding states were also given stern warning messages. In that respect, the White House asked the Macedonian authorities to respect all the rights of the Albanian minority, while Greece was told to give up on any pretensions towards Macedonia and Northern Epirus, a part of Albania where 100 thousand Greeks live.
The Americans have also estimated that the Balkan balance of fear will not exist initial there is clear balance of military potentials. It was decided that the Albanian army should not be strengthened, and that a greater effect will be made if the Yugoslav army is weakened.
Systematic weakening of the Albanian military forces was also influenced by the official Tirana, with a letter written in 1994 and addressed to Western governments. That message stated that Albania will enter the war if Serbia uses the Army in Kosovo and initiates a process of ethnic cleansing. In that manner, president Salih Berisha, who was for a long time promoted by the US as a cooperative politician with great influence on the Kosovars, became unpredictable politician and potential war leader.
According to an Albanian diplomat, a complete disintegration of the Albanian army in March of this year suits great powers who are opposed to Albanin military strengthening, with which a balance of power with Serbia would be created. It is clear that this would also Bring Kosovo at the doors of uncertainty. Also strong Albanian army would dominate in Albanian relations with Macedonia.
Military analysts are inclined towards the theory according to which West is at the same time a guarantor of the integrity of current Albania, but also a ramp to its possible widening. It is really impossible today to envisage any kind of annexation of Albanian territory, as was the division of the state between Greece and Turkey in 1913-1918, but it is also unrealistic to expect that Albania can militarily aid the inhabitants of Kosovo. In that respect, it seems Albania became a hostage of Kosovo.
In December of last year, Berisha called upon Kosovo Albanians to organize demonstrations of support for the Serbian opposition, and than he pushed Adem Demaqi into the political game, who became a political opponent to Ibrahim Rugova, Kosovo leader respected in the West. Prishtina answered Berishas demands with warning letter, in which Rugova rejected active resistance to Milosevic, this only strengthened positions of Demaqi in Tirana.
By promoting a new politician in Kosovo. Berisha attempted to become an all-Albanian leader, which in no way suited Washington, which wants to keep Albanian problems with Balkan states on, conditionally said, local levels. Holding the back to Demaqi, who is supporting the idea of a republican status of Kosovo within Yugoslavia, the Tirana doctor split with Pristina, and even with the US.
The recent collapse of the Albanian state and total breakdown of the army have, it seems, brought some things into their place. If nothing else, t lest Berishas ambitions have been curtailed. Due to that, Kosovo is warmer than ever. The Albanians there have today some 100,000 Kalashnikovs, with which, s a foreign diplomat recently said, they cannot win a war against Serbia, but they can instigate it. That is why in the future Europe - American policy in the South Balkans will have to be based on the control of events in Kosovo, and not as until now, with primary stabilization of Macedonia and Albania.
Albania cannot be anymore anything but a weapons warehouse for Kosovo. It has to be sid that from Tirana to Vlore Kalashnikovs are sold for two dollars apiece. At the same time, Kosovo government in exile sends millions of Deutch Marks only for the salaries of school teachers in Kosovo. If necessary, the money will quickly go to Albania instead, from where truckloads of weapons would arrive.
Source: Sarajevo monthly Dani, June 1997
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