The subject of the forthcoming local elections in Bosnia is also dealt with by Dragan Janjic of BETA news agency in the June 1-15, 1997 issue of the Belgrade by - weekly Republika.
The term for the presentation of the lists of candidates for the local elections in Bosnia and Hercegovina which will be held on 13 and 14 September has run out on May 20.
In the constellation of political forces in both Bosnian entities, in comparison to the elections held last year, there are no substantial changes. The decisive word, and in that respect greatest influence on the voters is still held by nationalistically oriented parties, or parties that re cooperating with them. Even more so, these parties have been able to strengthen their positions in the meantime. The parties of true democratic and civic orientation have the same or even smaller influence than they had during the elections last year.
The elections in the whole territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina will be held at the same time. This includes the region of Brcko, a city in Northern Bosnia which is under international arbitration. The voting will go on though, only in the part of the city which is in the territory of Republika Srpska (RS). International representatives, including the Brcko arbitrator Robert Farrand, are now firmly on the position that there will be no postponements of terms for the elections in Brcko and have repeated on a number of occasions that parties which opt for a boycott of these elections can only lose. The ruling Party of Democratic Action (SDA), has announced that it will boycott the elections in Brcko, since it is dissatisfied with the decision that the electoral post will be located only in the part of the municipality under the RS control. This decision, though, is not a definitive one.
The most notable change in the relation of political forces has occurred in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the ruling SDA has formed a coalition under a formal name of The Coalition for a Unified and Democratic BiH. Entering this coalition were the Party for BiH of Haris Silajdzic, Civil Democratic Party (GDR) and the BiH Liberals.
During last years elections Silajdzic and his party entered the elections by themselves. But, in the Federation parliament they were able to garner only 11 seats. At that time, Silajdzic had more ambitions to draw closer to unchallenged Izetbegovic.Obviously, he has come to the conclusion that it would be more beneficial to him to support the ruling SDA and to share power with it in the Parliament.
Silajdzic could have also opted for closer cooperation with the block of democratic parties lead by Unified Bosnian Social democrats (UBSD), which has also won 11 sets in the last years elections, but he has not done that. The transfer of Silajdzic, who is considered as the supported of a more liberal option, under the auspices of the ruling SDA, will probably considerably lessen the chances of the UBSD and other parties of obviously liberal orientation in the forthcoming elections. It is realistic to expect that the coalition formed by Izetbegovic and Silajdzic will have a convincing victory. Any other result would equal a sensation.
In the part of the Federation controlled by the Croats, the decisive word is reserved for Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). The oppositionary parties with any remote chance to win some more votes practically do not exist. The Bosnian Croats made a decision on May 20 to form a Croatian Community of Herceg-Bosna/HZHB/. The decision was taken at the session of the initiative board for the formation of the HZHB, which was chaired by the president of the HDZ Bozo Rajic. Rajic stressed that HZHB will not have state/legal attributes and that its should join all cultural, political and scientific institutions of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Federal partner of the Bosnian Croats will probably see in the formation of HZHB an attempt to retain even a part of prerogatives of the former Croatian Republic of Herceg-Bosnia, which is formally dissolved, but which practically controls the military and political situation.
In the Serbian entity, the absolute domination is still held by the ruling Serbian Democratic Party (SDS). The strongest oppositional bloc, lead by the Socialist party of RS in the last years elections, fared poorly. The parties of that bloc will enter this years local elections on the territory of RS by themselves, and in the territory of the Federation they want to participate jointly with other parties from RS.
During the period of one year, the influence of that bloc has additionally lessened. The Socialists were formed under the auspices of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), which has fallen into serious problems last winter. Automatically, the Union for Peace and Progress started to lose influence. In the meantime, the SPS, it seems, gave up on the intention to work more seriously on strengthening the SPS opposition, and has renewed the ties with the ruling SDS. This is in accordance with the intention of the Serb authorities to strengthen the so called national option in the forthcoming Serbian elections.
The party that is able to garner a bit more votes in RS is the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), which has a tough nationalistic stance and is strongly on the position of the division of Bosnia and Hercegovina, The remaining oppositionary parties are to small and can, possibly, count on only a few seats in larger municipalities, or on some influence in smaller cities. In those conditions, the ruling SDS has no need to form a coalition. It will enter the elections by itself, and, it is certain, win on them.
Some smaller parties of democratic orientation have formed t the beginning of this year a shadow government of Bosnia and Hercegovina. The most influential party in that government is UBSD. Entering this government from RS were Liberal Party of Milorad Zivanovic and the Liberals of Milorad Dodik. The group in question is actually the one that wants real reconstruction of a multiethnic Bosnia and Hercegovina. But, the initiative of this group of parties and politicians, as things stand now, has almost no chance of success in a foreseeable period of time.
Source: Belgrade by-weekly Republika, June 1 - 15, 1997
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