Nerzuk Curak of the Sarajevo monthly Dani , writes in that magazines issue of June 1997, about the situation in Bosniak political circles.
From the moment when he had to abdicate from political power under the pressure of the USA government, Hasan Cengic is attempting to regain lost might. Asked by one of the leading politicians from the Coalition for Bosnia and Hercegovina - hasnt that moment given him the sign that a lynch is expecting him within his party, similar to the one to which Haris Silajdzic was exposed to at one point - the man from Ustikolina calmly answered that he will not leave the party under any conditions. If that is correct, than all the speculations of those that have hoped that the informal leader of the Bosniak right will form his own party and take with him those like minded, who are not in small numbers, have fallen apart.
They explain this by Cengics need for public exposure, since according to them, the former Bosniak minister of defence is most dangerous when he is not doing anything. If publicly nominated as a president of a political party, he would contribute to balance of power, he would clearly define himself politically and would give the SAD a much greater manoeuvreing space to attempt to sell itself as a civic party in a coalition with three minority parties. Still, it seems that closer to the truth are those who think that Cengic will be the one who will, after Izetbegovics inevitable departure, force Silajdzic, Bicackic, Orucevic... To, in spite of their mutual political differences, leave the SDA and form a new political organization ! This scenario is explained by those in the know with the arguments of lobbyistic and logistic nature.
Edhem Bicackic, who is executing a particularly demanding job as a federal prime minister, has been confronted with a loss of the direct control of the party. Doing this job in his and Izetbegovics name are Halid Genjac and Hilmo Neimarlija. Two nice gentlemen, but without any political clout. Orucevic is busy with Mostar and the party is of interest to him only as a pure instrument in achieving the goal: the unification of the city on the Neretva River. Haris Silajdzic has formed a political party, but that is not the main obstacle for his come back into SDA. The frustrating individualism which Silajdzic is nurturing, as if he was a physicist is a basic obstacle for Silajdzic to take power over the SDA. Even as a leader of the Party for BiH he did not build any substantial infrastructure behind the scene, he still does not have his people in the manner Balkan politics demands that. I m not ware of a single operative politician in Bosnia and Hercegovina, which can unmistakably pointed out as Silajdzics man. Cengic has tones of such men, and those moles are only waiting for a favorable moment to materialize eventual sign from the boss to cover the party. This political milieu in which Bicackic, Orucevic and Silajdzic are reduced to only a dimension of executive authority, suits the Bosniak right, enabling it to peacefully prepare takeover of power in post - Izetbegovic period.
The story about fractions within the SDA is not a new one. Tactically, its on from the moment the party was formed until today, and only president Izetbegovic, with his undisputed authority of leader, was able to subdue all fraction conflicts and keep the party together. In the forthcoming period, this will be much harder to do. This was shown by the session of the Executive board of the SDA, when decision was being taken whether to go into coalition with Silajdzic, Kadic, Spahic and professor Filipovic, who later pulled out. Cengic, Behmen, Brka and Veladzic were against this coalition. Even though the Executive board accepted the Coalition as a new political fact, the voices against it have their weight. What is in question is not only four votes, but much more of them of those political groups who are supporting this rightist quartet of the ruling party. Can those people, possibly strengthened by Dzemaludin Latic, who joined Grandpas demand for a four - party coalition, but purely out of pragmatic, and not ideological reasons and convictions, change the Bosnian political course ?
The discussion about new municipalities has shown that such intentions are present. The attempt to bring down prime minister Bicackic under a ridiculous guise that there is too much leeway given to the Croats, has for the moment brought defeat to the anti-federalist stream, but SDA right will not give up easily on chopping of moderate heads. This in particular, if it is known that for Hasan Cengic the Federation is only a temporary solution, and not a goal of his political philosophy. On the other side, during the parliamentarian debate on new municipalities, the federal prime minister was able to gain on his back new enemies for all times in the SDA MPs club, whose revengefulness has no boundaries.
After the budget of the Federation was coordinated at the level of the federal government, from which s primary users the municipalities were excluded, the Bosniak side has promised to the partner side, due to its cooperation, concessions when new municipalities are formed. The logic of that softening is contained in quite a reasonable explanation: if the municipalities will not have t their disposal important financial means, the danger that the secession could be instigated through the new local communities is reduced to minimum.
The law on new municipalities was not coordinated in both houses of the Federal parliament, which means that it was not adopted. Osman Brka, Irfan Ajanovic and their mentors have shaken the SDA parliamentarian ship.
The general political milieu, as well the power relations in the municipalities, indicate a conclusion that the right faction in the SDA will continue to bring down the Federal prime minister. If Bicackic has any benefit from that, than it is the realization that he has to strengthen his position, securing support on the right wing of the party, as well as within the newly formed Coalition for Bosnia and Hercegovina.Since this coalition has been greed by Izetbegovic with Silajdzic, and than this one offered it to Kadic, Bicackic is forced to a strong political tie with Silajdzic, no matter that the two of them, taking into consideration the functions that the two of them are holding, are practically opponents to each other. This comes from the fact that the manner in which the Bosnian state union is constituted, the Federation as an entity is essentially confronted to the BiH as a state.
But, in spite of this essential contradiction, the political logic seems to dictate new positioning of forces, in which this duo will play a joint game. This will further burden the relations in the SDA itself. In that context re-approachment of Mahmutcekajic and Silajdzic can be understood as Izetbegovics order to the president of the Party for BiH that Mahmutcekajic is again made a friend of the Family.
President Izetbegovic has made a honorable gesture when he called for the formation of the Coalition for BiH. He saved the other coalition parties from disaster, while he sent a message to the conservatives in his party that they definitely are not his choice. But, the question remains whether he will be able to channel their dissatisfaction. In that respect, the most important move seems to be the building of a competent and to secularism devoted military top, which radical right will not be able to utilize. Its influence in the Army itself is hard to detect now.
Source: Sarajevo monthly Dani, June 1997
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