"Kosava" -an electoral commentary
Milan Milosevic of the Belgrade weekly "Vreme" wrote in the
September 21, 1996 issue of that magazine one of the initial
overviews of the federal elections on the territory of Serbia.
Wheat affair, social discontent, Bosnian elections and election
calculations The election campaign was overshadowed by two events in
Serbia last week---the Bosnian elections and the interrogation of the
witnesses (September 16) in the trial against Zoran Djindjic, the
president of the Democratic Party (DS) who has been charged with
slander and exposing the Prime Minister of the Serbian government to
ridicule.
As of December last year, Djindjic has not let the matter of the
so-called wheat affair out of his hands by which he is trying to
prove that Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic's Serbian government, as a
directorial one, has been discredited due to a conflict of interests
since the ministers-directors are in a position to give preferential
treatment to their (public or private) companies. Formally, all
ministers have "frozen'' their directorship functions, while minister
Radulovic went so far as to "freeze'' his membership in the
Democratic Party, as well as the MP seat which he had received
through it. Essentially, in Serbia which is being governed as a
single company and where the boundaries between government functions
and public companies have not been set, where everyone who is in a
position to run to the government for funds does so, the public
doesn't much care for Western bans on politicians showing
preferential treatment towards business enterprises.
Djindjic looked upon the trial as a political chance, and gave up
his MP immunity status in order to transfer the parliamentary debate
to a courtroom. He announced that DS would continue to publish
"evidence on the machinations of the ministers in the government of
Serbia'' in leaflets which he would distribute all over the country.
Prior to the September continuation of the trial, he published on a
black flyer an enlarged fax document with a seal, filed under the
highly confidential number 199/95. It states that the government of
the Republic of Serbia on its session held on December 7, 1995,
amongst other things, has concluded that the company Progres was to
export one million tons of wheat, partly for foreign currency funds,
and partly as a compensational transaction for the import of oil and
eventually mineral fertilizers.
The day before the trial continued
(15), DS activists distributed a special issue of Demokratija wholly
dedicated to the "wheat affair.'' Last week Djindjic stated in front
of a few thousand supporters in Kikinda: "In Serbia all things take
place amidst the red triangle of criminal activities---the
government, the company of the minister, the Directorate of Commodity
Reserves. In three steps the work, sweat and toils of a million
people disappear and are transformed into foreign currency funds
which end up in private bank accounts in Cyprus.'' Nothing can stop
this trial from being put into a political frame, and it looks as
though Djindjic has, in the wheat affair, out witted his opponents
shouting "Where's our bread!''
The government, which at this moment
is trying to calm the rebel workers from Kragujevac and to fulfill at
least one promise on putting the production capacities into motion,
will not look upon such incitement of discontent graciously. The
trial, inconveniently for the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS),
corresponds with the very beginning of the campaign. Bratislav
Ivkovic, president of the Belgrade socialists, claims that they will
not organize a special campaign, but shall rather consider their
already existing activities as their campaign. The Yugoslav United
Left (JUL) has published its program in Politika daily. New Democracy
is announcing its stand on the elections on all levels. All is
running in a routine fashion.
The Bosnian defeat of the Union of
Peace and Progress and the eventual outbreak of social discontent
shall most probably push this group into an even firmer embrace. In
that context, it can be of great help to the ruling party that the
public is still wasting its time by taking notice of the relations
amongst the opposition engrossed in pre-election calculations. The
agreement of the Serbian Renewal Party (SPO), DS and the Civil
Alliance (GSS) on joining up forces in the coalition "`Zajedno''
contains the obligation (article 6) of these parties that they will
not form any alliances with the ruling party (meaning SPS) nor their
satellites (New Democracy ND) neither in the campaign nor
post-campaign period individually, nor with opposition parties which
do not appear as signatories of the coalition agreement (having the
Democratic Party of Serbia DSS in mind).
Yet it also foresees
(article 9) "Zajedno' coalition agreement on the federal level, the
coalition `Zajedno' shall, on the municipal, town and province
elections, since those elections are to be held in accordance with
the majority knockout system, be open for joint lists with DSS and
other opposition parliamentary parties.'' On the basis of that, the
democrats have started making pacts with municipal DSS boards.
However, since the dispute between DSS and SPO has continued, the
president of this party has ordered its boards not to join up with
the "Serbian Renewal Party haters,'' and to put eminent DSS people on
their lists only if they become SPO members. In the announcement from
September 15, DS claims that by such an act "the signed agreement is
doubly violated'' and that the "municipal boards of that party shall
keep all of the previously made agreements on local coalitions with
all opposition parties, including DSS.'' SPO sent word that, in case
conflicts on the local level persist, they shall hand in individual
lists on the federal level. If all local lists aren't coordinated by
September 22, the presidency of the three coalition parties have to
reach an agreement in the next seven days. Which means that they
shall carry on their skirmishes throughout September and that those
skirmishes shall undermine their credibility.
Source: Belgrade weekly "Vreme", September 21, 1996
Teofil Pancic of the Novi Sad weekly "Nezavisni", gave also in his
elections commentary in the October 4, 1996 issue of that magazine a
more detailed view on some coalition partners on both sides.
The whole regime block as Vuk Draskovic named them, the "Reverse
coalition", seeing the formation of the coalition "Zajedno" decided
to unite too. Speaking in "JUL" rethorics,it wanted to be on a par
with the "reactionary right". The ruling Socialist party of Serbia
and a very powerful United Yugoslav left of Milosevic's wife, dr.
Mirjana Markovic are natural allies. "New Democracy, it should not be
forgotten, represents a specific lobby of businessmen who have built
their small business empires mainly on the privatized "social"
capital. That is why the heads of this party, which like to rejoice
in their late-Duce strategy of the "long march through the
institutions", see their interest in keeping the global status quo in
the power relations on the Serbian political scene, with gradual and
dosaged movement towards that model of privatization which will
protect "the results" of the transformation of the capital so far.
The interest of the three parties whose parties represent the regime
on the federal and republican level is then, clear and undeniable.
The "Zajedno" coalition is a more murky proposition. Everything
started with a joint meeting of the SPO, DS, and GSS on the March
meetings in Kragujevac and Belgrade. The heads of the three parties
have, finally, discovered hot water, that is, came to the conclusion
that the joint stance makes them stronger and more able to adequately
confront the ruling block. In that manner, as has been the case on
other numerous occasions, the story of a joint efforts (and votes) of
the democratic opposition in Serbia as been warmed up, which was,
from the beginning, characterized by quarrels, fractures and pathetic
conflicts which do not lag too much behind the famous theological
discussions on the theme "how many angels can be fit on the eye of
the needle".
The "Zajedno" coalition was, until September, some form of an
"informal marriage"; only the dangerous approach of the electoral
deadline forced SPO,DS, and GSS to formalize their cooperation. The
key moment for the success of the oppositonary mediators was the
success of influencing former national bank governor, dr. Dragoslav
Avramovic to return from the USA and rent his name and still
charismatic figure to the coalition. This has meant the widening of
the coalition towards DSS, the party of a hardline rightist
orientation, which has, until that moment, refused to cooperate with
the "Zajedno" coalition, finding for this "principled" reasons, such
as insufficient patriotic orientation of two of the three parties
that have formed it. DSS of Vojislav Kostunica is the product of the
"mainstream" of the former Serbian dissident movement; this means
that its political programme exhausts itself in the alchemic attempts
of combining and integrating nationalistic and democratic ideas in
the almost cold war rethoric of anti-communism, unsuited to the
nineties.
Source: Novi Sad weekly "Nezavisni", October 4, 1996
Belgrade weekly VREME commissioned the first of three pre-election
polls by research agency Partner-Marketing.Milan Milosevic commented
on the poll in the October 5, 1996 issue of the magazine.
The poll was conducted in the period of September 26-30 and
covered 1,000 citizens of Serbia of voting age, excluding Kosovo. The
poll covered 26 municipalities.
Which party would you vote for if federal parliamentary elections
were held now?
The Zajedno coalition 28.5%. The SPS-JUL-ND coalition 24.2%.
That outcome surprised many poll researchers, this writer and some
readers. The first check of those results was a comparison with the
previous elections, in 1993 in Serbia excluding Kosovo. When the
results of the percentage of the vote won by the SPS in those
elections are compared to the results of the poll and when the
results of the DEPOS opposition coalition at the 93 elections are
compared to the results of the poll, you get an interesting parallel:
SPS in 1993 24.3% SPS-JUL-ND 1996 24.2%
DEPOS-DS-DSS 1993 23.2% Zajedno 1996 28.5%
SRS 1993 9.5% SRS 1996 8.0%
Other parties 1993 8.3% Other parties 1996 5.0%
Undecided 1996 13.7%
Abstentions 1993 34.0% Abstentions 1996 21.2%
The ruling coalition currently has a rating almost equal to the
ratings of the SPS three years ago and Zajedno has almost 5% more
support than its members had in 1993 while the Serbian Radical Party
is losing support. In Belgrade, Zajedno improved its ratings to 6.6%
(from 32% to 38.6%); in central Serbia (without Kosovo) by 5%
(22%-27%); and in Vojvodina by just 2% (18.8%-20.8%). We don't know
how the Democratic Party of Vojvodina Hungarians (DZVM) will do in
Vojvodina after its break with the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians
(SVM) and what the For Vojvodina coalition will do as it pins down a
relatively large number of dispersed votes. The SPS has held onto its
support in Central Serbia (27.2%-27.5%), grown stronger in Vojvodina
by 2.6% (21.4%-23%) and dropped slightly in Belgrade (20.3%-19%). SRS
ratings dropped the most, by 3.5% in Vojvodina (10.6%-6.9%), 1% in
central Serbia, and held onto their support in Belgrade.
The drop in support for the SRS in Vojvodina is primarily a sign
that the war is over. We'll wait and see how the SRS will profit from
social unrest. But, any calculation will not be complete until the
13.1% of undecided voters make their choice. Local Level Which party
candidate will you vote for at local elections? SPS-JUL-ND 22.6%
Zajedno 27.4% SRS 8.1% Other parties 4.3% Undecided 16.7% Abstentions
20.9% Serbian voters seem to be avoiding cross voting and at local
level, they show that their decisions will be the same as at the
federal level. Partners's local election poll indicates possible
regional differences. The poll showed that 24.8% will vote for the
leftist coalition at local level in central Serbia, 22.7% in
Vojvodina and 18% in Belgrade. Zajedno will get 35.7% of the local
election vote in Belgrade, 27.2% in central Serbia and 19.1% in
Vojvodina. If that indication is correct, it could mean the
electorate is forgiving the opposition for the mistakes it made while
it ruled locally in Belgrade just as SPS voters are forgiving their
party for losing the war, destroying the state and the years of
misery.
The poll did not show if the opposition voters will let the
Socialists win in the second round as they have done so far. Party
armies are staying in place, 69.1% of the people who voted for the
SPS in 1993 said they would vote for the SPS-JUL-ND coalition and
70.1% of the DEPOS-DS-DSS voters support Zajedno. Those percentages
could be increased by undecided voters.
Support for the SRS is
dropping since just 54.3% of SRS voters said they would vote for the
Radicals this time around, but bear in mind that polls are often
wrong about the SRS; every 1992 poll missed the mark with the SRS. In
any case, 15% of SRS supporters are undecided and 12% opted for
Zajedno. It seems that loyalty is linked to the perceptions of
chances to win the elections; just 38% of supporters of other smaller
parties are staying faithful to the parties they voted for in
1993---14.9% of them won't vote and 14.5% will vote for Zajedno. The
Yugoslav United Left (JUL)and Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) spent all
last year playing to the younger generation, trying to get it into
its ranks but judging by the poll, they can't claim success; 32.3% of
voters who were under age in 1993 opted for Zajedno and just 9.3% for
the leftist coalition. The SRS will take 12.9% of first time voters.
Zajedno is a young person's coalition, attracting; 29.3% of voters
aged 18-23; 23% aged 30-39 and 23.1% aged 40-49. The SRS won over a
similar part of the population with 25.9% aged 18-29, 21.6% aged
30-39 and 27.5% aged 40-49. The SPS-JUL-ND coalition is like a mirror
image of that: the poll shows that 23.9% of its supporters are over
60, 21% are aged 50-59 and 23.1% are aged 40-49.Men are the more
active voters, but the leftist coalition has a better balance of the
sexes (54% men to 45% women) than the SRS (59.9% to 40.1%) or Zajedno
(57 ;-43%). Avramovic, who said his wife would kill him if he
didn't obey her, could teach them about relating to women.
Those
polled were also asked to evaluate parties on a scale of one to five:
36% graded one for the SPS, the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) got
42%, SRS 44.8%, Democratic Party (DS) 30.1%, Serbian Democratic Party
(DSS) 27.5%, JUL 40.9%. On the other hand, 15.7% gave the SPS a five,
2.4% for the SPO, 3.3% for the SRS, 2.9% for the DS, 2.4% for the
DSS, 5.2% for JUL. That could mean that opposition voters are more
critical towards their parties than SPS supporters are towards the
ruling party, grading them low but voting for them anyway.
Average grades for the party leaders were about the same as for
their parties with the exception of Milosevic, who has a much higher
average grade than the SPS and Avramovic, who scored the highest
average grade of 3.899. The coalition leaders are pulling their
groups forward. Will these elections be a settling of accounts? Those
polled were also asked to grade institutions on a one to five scale.
The Serbian president got the most positive grades (15.1%).
Zajedno voters tend to exaggerate the influence of President
Milosevic and SPS voters tend to underestimate it. Voters believe
that, in terms of influence, the institution president is followed by
the Yugoslav Army (VJ) (12.5%), Serbian police (8.2%) and President
Lilic (8%). On the other hand, President Milosevic's influence is
said to be vast by 77.6% of the polled while just 18.2% feel the VJ
has vast influence. The other armed force, the police, is also not
believed to have vast influence with just 28% of the polled saying it
does. Among the people who gave the lowest grade to the Serbian
government, 60.9% are Zajedno supporters and 58.2% are SRS
supporters.
On the other hand, 79% of the people who gave the Marjanovic
government the highest grade will vote for the SPS-JUL-ND coalition.
SRS supporters voiced the greatest dissatisfaction with the economic
position of their families; most of them (37%) said their economic
position is very bad and 30.9% said mainly bad. People who won't vote
said their situation is very bad (40%) and mainly bad (26%). The
undecided mainly (42%) said their situation was average. Zajedno
supporters are less dissatisfied than SRS voters (27.8% said very
bad, 27.5% said mainly bad) and most of them (38.7%) said their
situation was average. A higher than average number of SPS-JUL-ND
voters (46%) said their economic situation is average. Most Zajedno
(39%) and SRS (37%) supporters expect the economic situation to
remain the same next year while ruling coalition supporters said it
would improve. That means that the SPS Step Into the New Century
campaign has injected optimism into hard line regime supporters and
relaxed opposition voters somewhat without moving them from their
decision.
Right now it seems that variations in voter support won't have a
serious effect on expected election results set by the balance of
forces in 1993 and 29 district electoral system. Since the first poll
showed similarities with the 1993 elections and the fact that the
number of MPs is dictated by a different layout, the VREME
documentation center decided to simulate the vote count based on
possible election results (see election compass) so readers can get a
realistic image of election chances. The system will be shown on the
example of electoral district 1 Palilula where four MPs will be
elected. We took the SPS 1993 results, the total results of the
Zajedno members and the SRS results and divided them by 1, 2, 3, 4.
Zajedno 101,321/1 = 101,321
SPS 50,868/1 = 50,868
Zajedno 101,321/2 = 50,660.50
Zajedno 101,321/3 = 33,773.67
SPS 50,868/2 = 25,434 Zajedno 101,321/4 = 25,330.25
SRS 21,251/1 = 21,251 The first four candidates get elected in
Palilula. Zajedno leads the SPS by 3-1 and the growth of its ratings
in Belgrade by 6% probably won't affect the outcome. In fact, the
numbers in most electoral districts won't be affected by the change
in ratings. The SPS will win the elections in Serbia 58 parliament
seats to 40 mainly thanks to Kosovo, where they're leading 12-0 in
three districts. Similar simulations with a narrowed down Zajedno
showed an outcome of 63-32 which means Kostunica's decision to join
Zajedno brought the coalition nine seats which the DSS would have
lost on its own. The first pre-election poll shows that could win in
terms of voter numbers (28.5%-24.2%) but that ratio will change to
the end of the campaign. The ruling coalition will win in terms of
parliament seats, regardless of whether the difference in popularity
will grow or drop.
Source: Belgrade weekly "Vreme", October 5, 1996
In the September 20, 1996 issue of the Podgorica weekly "Monitor",
Drasko Djuranovic gave an overview of the electoral situation among
the Montenegrin opposition.
When on August 22, Novak Kilibarda and Slavko Perovic publicly
proclaimed in front of the cameras the introduction of the electoral
coalition "Narodna Sloga" (National Unity), it was the first step
towards greater joining among the Montenegrin opposition in the fight
for the "anullment of the absolute power of the Democratic Party of
Socialists". Two days later, the Executive board of the SDP decided
that this party will join the coalition, while positive answers of
the SDA for Montenegro and the Democratic Union (the party of the
Albanians) was awaited. The electoral mathematics was indicating that
there is a serious reason for the unification of the politically
different parties: the simple sum of the votes of these five parties
guaranteed the bringing down from power of the DPS.
The illusions about the possible formation of a "great coalition"
was first dispersed by Harun Hadzic, leader of the SDA, who openly
stated that his party has no intetion to join the oppositionary fight
against the DPS. Mehmed Bardhi, the leader of the Democratic union,
was a bit more veiled, leaving the possibility of cooperation more
open.
The trilateral coalition of the parliamentary oppositionary
parties - LSCG, NS and SDP - was not brought into contention in the
beginning. It was thought though, that to the Kilibarda's party which
had "a Serbian flavor" ,the coalition with the two parties who
supported sovereign and independent Montenegro will be somewhat
unpleasant. But Kilibarda, a professor inclined to politics, seems to
have dispersed "national romanticism".
But, the problems arose where they were least expected. The formal
joining of the SDP was being prolonged day by day. The first problems
arose with the division of the future mandates: but after long
discussions, the Socialists accepted five mandates.
Still, the formal proclamation of the trilateral coalition did not
come about. Again the negotiations stumbled concerning the relations
within the coalition: the method of decision-making and deciding on
the carriers of the electoral lists.
It turned out that the "minimum of conditions" on which the SDP
insisted was the key moment for the breakdown of further talks.After
that, everyone went their own way: the leadership of the SDP to New
York to be formally accepted in the Socialist International, and the
leaders of the LSCG and NS into a formal electoral campaign.There
were attempts to revive the dialogue, but with no success.In the
meantime, the Nationals and Liberals quickly laid down the details of
their electoral campaign.
The individual electoral attempt of the Socialdemocrats will have
serious consequences for the Montenegrin political scene. The SDP
will be the first one to feel them. There is a good chance they will
get a much lower share of the Parliamentary seats as the consequence
of the new electoral law. Their position will be furthter weakened by
the entering into the electoral scene of the SDA party, particularly
in northern part of Montenegro. Possibly, they can count on three
parliamentary mandates.
The political damage of the non-entrance of the SDP into the
coalition will be also felt by the LSCG and NS. It is quite certain
that the main goal - dethroning of the DPS will be impossible without
the votes of the SDP.
Source : Podgorica weekly " Monitor ", September 20, 1996
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